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Zip Code 11739: Rising Home Values and Declining Ownership in Great River, NY
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Great River, located in zip code 11739 in New York, has experienced significant changes in homeownership rates and housing prices over the past decade. This area, known for its scenic views along the Great South Bay, has seen a shift in its residential landscape, with notable trends in both ownership and rental markets.
The homeownership rate in Great River has shown a steady decline from 2013 to 2022. In 2013, 94% of housing units were owner-occupied, but by 2022, this figure had decreased to 77%. This 17 percentage point drop coincides with a substantial increase in average home prices. In 2012, the average home price was $590,366, rising to $908,812 by 2022, representing a 53.9% increase over this period. The inverse relationship between homeownership rates and average home prices suggests that rising property values may have made homeownership less accessible for some residents.
Federal interest rates have played a role in shaping homeownership trends in Great River. From 2013 to 2016, when interest rates were historically low (ranging from 0.11% to 0.40%), homeownership rates remained relatively stable, hovering around 90-94%. However, as interest rates began to rise more significantly from 2017 (1%) to 2019 (2.16%), homeownership rates started to decline more rapidly, dropping from 88% in 2017 to 83% in 2019. This trend suggests that higher interest rates may have contributed to the decrease in homeownership by making mortgages more expensive.
As homeownership declined, the percentage of renters in Great River increased from 6% in 2013 to 23% in 2022. This rise in renters coincided with an increase in average rent prices, which grew from $1,472 in 2013 to $1,588 in 2022, an 8% increase. However, it's worth noting that rent prices fluctuated during this period, peaking at $1,747 in 2018 before declining slightly. The population of Great River also fluctuated, reaching a low of 1,519 in 2018 before increasing to 1,939 in 2022, which may have influenced rental demand and prices.
In 2023 and 2024, average home prices in Great River continued to rise, reaching $930,600 in 2023 and $966,820 in 2024. This represents a further 6.4% increase from 2022 to 2024. Concurrently, federal interest rates climbed significantly to 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024, potentially impacting homebuying affordability and market dynamics.
Looking ahead, based on the observed trends, we can predict that average home prices in Great River will continue to increase over the next five years, potentially reaching or exceeding $1.1 million by 2029. Average rent prices are also expected to rise, albeit at a slower rate, potentially reaching around $1,700 to $1,800 per month in the same timeframe.
In summary, Great River has experienced a significant shift from homeownership to renting, driven by rising home prices and fluctuating interest rates. The area has seen substantial appreciation in property values, making homeownership more challenging for some residents. As the rental market expands, both average home prices and rents are expected to continue their upward trajectory, albeit at different rates, reshaping the residential landscape of this New York community.
