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Zip Code 11706: Rising Home Values and Ownership Rates in Bay Shore, New York
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Bay Shore, located in zip code 11706 in New York, has experienced significant changes in homeownership rates, average home prices, and average rent prices over the past decade. This analysis will explore these trends and their relationships.
From 2013 to 2022, homeownership rates in Bay Shore showed a steady increase, rising from 71% to 76%. During this same period, average home prices demonstrated a consistent upward trend. In 2013, the average home price was $282,572, which rose to $508,312 by 2022, representing a substantial 80% increase over nine years. This positive correlation between homeownership rates and average home prices suggests that despite rising costs, more residents were able to purchase homes.
The relationship between federal interest rates and homeownership rates in Bay Shore aligns with well-established trends. From 2013 to 2016, when interest rates were extremely low (ranging from 0.11% to 0.40%), homeownership rates remained stable at around 71-72%. As interest rates began to rise more substantially from 2017 (1%) to 2019 (2.16%), homeownership rates actually increased from 73% to 74%. This trend continued into 2020 and 2021, with homeownership reaching 76% despite fluctuations in interest rates, indicating that other factors were also influencing homeownership decisions in this area.
Renter percentages in Bay Shore showed a gradual decline from 28% in 2013 to 24% in 2022. Interestingly, average rent prices increased during this period, rising from $1,657 in 2013 to $1,752 in 2022, a 5.7% increase. The population of Bay Shore fluctuated over this time, peaking at 71,062 in 2017 before declining to 67,236 by 2022. The decrease in renter percentages despite rising rent prices could suggest that more residents were transitioning to homeownership or that higher rents were pushing some renters out of the area.
In 2023, the average home price in Bay Shore reached $515,138, with federal interest rates at 5.02%. As of 2024, the average home price has further increased to $550,545, while interest rates have risen slightly to 5.33%. These figures indicate a continued upward trend in home prices despite higher interest rates, which could potentially impact affordability for prospective homebuyers.
Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, we anticipate that average home prices in Bay Shore will continue to rise, potentially reaching around $650,000 by 2029. Average rent prices are also expected to increase, possibly surpassing $2,000 per month within the next five years. These projections are based on historical trends and current market conditions.
In summary, Bay Shore has experienced a notable increase in homeownership rates and average home prices over the past decade, while renter percentages have declined despite rising rent prices. The area has shown resilience in its housing market, with home prices continuing to appreciate even in the face of higher interest rates. As we look to the future, both home prices and rents are expected to continue their upward trajectory, potentially creating challenges for affordability but also opportunities for homeowners and investors in this zip code.
