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Zip Code 10941: Rising Home Values and Declining Ownership in Scotchtown, New York
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Scotchtown, located in zip code 10941 in New York, has experienced significant changes in its housing market over the past decade. This area has seen fluctuations in homeownership rates, average home prices, and average rent prices, reflecting broader economic trends and local market dynamics. The homeownership rate in Scotchtown has shown a gradual decline over the years. In 2013, 68% of residents were homeowners, but by 2022, this figure had decreased to 62%. This trend coincides with a substantial increase in average home prices. In 2013, the average home price was $202,920, which steadily rose to $360,056 by 2022, representing a 77.4% increase over this period. The inverse relationship between homeownership rates and average home prices suggests that rising property values may have made homeownership less accessible for some residents.
Federal interest rates have played a significant role in shaping homeownership trends. From 2013 to 2016, interest rates remained below 0.5%, corresponding with relatively stable homeownership rates around 68-69%. However, as interest rates began to rise from 2017 (1%) to 2019 (2.16%), homeownership rates declined to 63%. Interestingly, despite the sharp drop in interest rates in 2020 and 2021 (0.38% and 0.08% respectively), homeownership rates continued to decrease, possibly due to other economic factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic and rapidly increasing home prices.
The renter population in Scotchtown has grown as homeownership has declined. The percentage of renters increased from 32% in 2013 to 38% in 2022. This shift coincided with a rise in average rent prices, which increased from $1,314 in 2013 to $1,531 in 2022, a 16.5% increase. The population fluctuated during this period, reaching a low of 13,232 in 2020 before rebounding to 13,872 in 2022. The growing renter population and rising rent prices suggest increasing demand for rental properties in the area.
In 2023 and 2024, the housing market in Scotchtown continued its upward trajectory. The average home price reached $380,888 in 2023 and further increased to $404,255 in 2024, representing a 12.3% rise over two years. This growth occurred despite a significant increase in federal interest rates, which rose to 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024. These higher interest rates may impact future homeownership rates and market dynamics.
Looking ahead, predictive models suggest that the upward trend in both average home prices and rent prices is likely to continue over the next five years. Average home prices are projected to potentially reach around $450,000 to $475,000 by 2029, while average rent prices could increase to approximately $1,700 to $1,800 per month. However, these projections assume a continuation of current trends and do not account for potential economic shifts or policy changes.
In summary, Scotchtown has experienced a decline in homeownership rates coupled with significant increases in average home prices and rent prices. The interplay between federal interest rates, housing affordability, and demographic shifts has shaped these trends. As the area continues to evolve, the balance between homeowners and renters, along with housing costs, will remain key factors in the local real estate market.
