Robbery trends in Windsor show a general decline. The city reported 2 robberies in 2011, peaking at 3 annually from 2015 to 2017, and then dropping to zero from 2018 to 2022. In terms of population, this represents a decrease from 0.35 robberies per 1,000 people in 2011 to 0.54 per 1,000 in 2016, before falling to zero. The city's contribution to state robbery figures also declined from 0.03% in 2011 to 0% from 2018 onwards. This trend suggests a significant improvement in robbery prevention or reporting in recent years.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents fluctuated from 7 in 2011 to a peak of 16 in 2019, before sharply declining to 2 in 2022. This translates to a rate of 1.22 per 1,000 people in 2011, rising to 3.09 per 1,000 in 2019, and falling to 0.45 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault figures peaked at 0.1% in 2019 but decreased to 0.01% by 2022. This trend indicates a significant recent improvement in addressing aggravated assaults.

There appears to be a correlation between the decline in violent crime and the city's changing demographics. As the Black population percentage decreased from 63% in 2014 to 55% in 2021, before rising to 61% in 2022, violent crime rates generally followed a similar pattern. Additionally, the decrease in population density from 2,045 per square mile in 2011 to 1,583 in 2022 correlates with the overall reduction in violent crime.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), Windsor may see a further reduction in overall violent crime rates. The murder rate is projected to stabilize at around 0.2 per 1,000 residents, while robberies are expected to remain near zero. Aggravated assaults are predicted to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching a rate of 0.3 per 1,000 residents.

In summary, Windsor has experienced a general decline in violent crime over the past decade, particularly in robberies and aggravated assaults. This trend has occurred alongside significant demographic changes and population decrease. The most concerning aspect is the sporadic occurrence of murders in recent years, which, despite low numbers, represent a higher per capita rate due to the smaller population. These findings suggest that while the overall violent crime situation has improved, targeted efforts to address specific violent crimes, particularly homicides, may be necessary to ensure the continued safety and well-being of Windsor's residents.