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Wilmette's Violent Crime Trends: Low Rates Persist in Chicago Suburb
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Wilmette, Illinois, a suburb north of Chicago, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. From 2011 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with 9 incidents reported in 2011 and 10 in 2022, showing a slight increase of 11.11% over this period. During the same timeframe, the population grew from 27,070 to 27,819, a modest increase of 2.77%.
In terms of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, the city has maintained a consistent record of zero incidents from 2011 to 2022. This stability is particularly noteworthy given the population growth. The rate per 1,000 people remained at 0 throughout this period, indicating an exceptionally low murder rate compared to many other urban areas. The percentage of state crime for this category has consistently been 0%, highlighting the city's safety in this regard.
Rape incidents have shown some variability over the years. In 2011, there were no reported cases, but by 2022, the number had increased to 5. This represents a significant increase, though the small numbers involved make percentage calculations less meaningful. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0 in 2011 to 0.18 in 2022. The percentage of state crime for rape fluctuated, reaching a peak of 0.54% in 2021 before decreasing to 0.14% in 2022. This trend suggests that while rape incidents have increased, they remain a small fraction of the state's total.
Robbery trends show a more complex pattern. In 2011, there were 4 reported robberies, which decreased to 3 in 2022, a 25% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people decreased slightly from 0.15 in 2011 to 0.11 in 2022. The percentage of state crime for robbery has fluctuated, from 0.02% in 2011 to 0.03% in 2022, with some years showing no robberies at all. This indicates that robbery remains a relatively rare occurrence in the city.
Aggravated assault incidents have shown some variation. In 2011, there were 5 reported cases, which decreased to 2 in 2022, a 60% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.18 in 2011 to 0.07 in 2022. The percentage of state crime for aggravated assault has generally remained low, ranging from 0.02% in 2011 to 0.02% in 2022, with a peak of 0.05% in 2018. This suggests that aggravated assault rates have improved over time relative to both the local population and state figures.
Examining correlations between violent crime trends and demographic factors, we observe a strong relationship with population density. As the population density increased from 5,011 people per square mile in 2011 to 5,150 in 2022, there was a corresponding fluctuation in violent crime rates. However, the overall crime rate remained low despite the increasing density, suggesting effective law enforcement and community safety measures.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continuation of the current low crime rates. Based on the historical data, we predict that the total number of violent crimes will remain below 15 per year, with murder rates staying at or near zero. Rape and robbery incidents may show slight increases, potentially reaching 6-7 cases each annually by 2029. Aggravated assault cases are expected to remain stable, fluctuating between 2-5 incidents per year.
In summary, Wilmette demonstrates a remarkably low and stable violent crime rate despite modest population growth. The absence of murders, low robbery rates, and decreasing aggravated assault trends paint a picture of a safe community. While rape incidents have seen some increase, they remain low in absolute numbers. These trends, coupled with the high population density, suggest a well-managed urban environment with effective crime prevention strategies. As the city moves forward, maintaining these low crime rates will likely be a key focus for local authorities and community members alike.
