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Waterville, Ohio: A Decade of Shifting Violent Crime Trends
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Waterville, located in Ohio, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. From 2011 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a notable increase from 2 incidents in 2021 to 8 in 2022, representing a 300% increase. Over the same period, the population grew from 6,318 in 2011 to 6,858 in 2022, an 8.55% increase.
The city has maintained a consistently low murder rate, with no reported cases of murder or nonnegligent manslaughter from 2011 to 2022. This absence of murders, despite population growth, indicates a relatively safe environment in terms of the most serious violent crimes. The murder rate per 1,000 people and the percentage of state crime for this category have remained at 0% throughout the observed period.
Rape incidents have shown some variability over the years. The city reported 3 cases in 2013 (0.47 per 1,000 people) and 1 case in 2014 (0.16 per 1,000 people), with no reported cases in most other years. In 2022, there was 1 reported rape (0.15 per 1,000 people). The percentage of state rape cases attributed to the city peaked at 0.17% in 2013 and stood at 0.03% in 2022. This fluctuation suggests that while rape is not a persistent problem, occasional incidents do occur.
Robbery trends have been minimal, with only two reported incidents over the 12-year period. One robbery was reported in 2016 and another in 2022, both representing 0.01% and 0.02% of state robberies respectively. The rate per 1,000 people was approximately 0.16 for both years. The low frequency of robberies indicates that this type of crime is not a significant concern for the community.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of cases ranged from 0 to 6 over the years, with the highest count recorded in 2022 (6 cases, or 0.88 per 1,000 people). The percentage of state aggravated assaults attributed to the city has generally remained low, peaking at 0.03% in 2022. The trend shows an increase in recent years, with 2022 having the highest number of cases and percentage of state crime.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a modest relationship between population growth and the increase in violent crimes, particularly evident in the rise of aggravated assaults. The population density increased from 1,223 per square mile in 2011 to 1,328 in 2022, which coincides with the uptick in violent crimes. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the slight decrease in the white population percentage (from 93% in 2014 to 85% in 2022) and the increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults.
Applying predictive models based on recent trends, it's projected that by 2029, the city may see a continued gradual increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults. The model suggests that the number of aggravated assaults could potentially reach 8-10 cases annually, assuming current trends persist. However, given the city's historically low crime rates, any increase is likely to remain relatively small in absolute numbers.
In summary, Waterville has maintained a generally low violent crime rate over the past decade, with no murders and minimal robberies. The most significant trend has been the recent uptick in aggravated assaults, which warrants attention. While the overall violent crime rate remains low compared to many urban areas, the increase in 2022 suggests a need for continued monitoring and preventive measures to maintain the city's safety record.
