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Warrenton, NC: Property Crime Surge Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Warrenton, located in North Carolina, has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased by 87.1%, rising from 31 to 58 incidents. During this same period, the population decreased by 25%, from 4,859 to 3,645 residents, highlighting a concerning trend in the relationship between crime rates and population dynamics.
Burglary rates in the city have shown fluctuations over the years. In 2010, there was only 1 reported burglary, which increased to 11 in 2019, before decreasing to 3 in 2022. This represents a 200% increase from 2010 to 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.21 in 2010 to 0.82 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries increased from 0% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2022, indicating a growing contribution to statewide burglary statistics despite the population decrease.
Larceny-theft has been the most prevalent property crime in the city. Incidents increased from 30 in 2010 to 52 in 2022, a 73.3% rise. The rate per 1,000 people grew from 6.17 in 2010 to 14.27 in 2022, reflecting a significant increase in theft relative to the population. The city's percentage of state larceny-theft doubled from 0.02% to 0.04% during this period, suggesting a disproportionate increase compared to statewide trends.
Motor vehicle theft rates have remained relatively low but showed an upward trend. From no reported cases in 2010, the number increased to 3 in 2022. This translates to a rate increase from 0 to 0.82 per 1,000 people. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0% to 0.02%, indicating a growing problem relative to statewide figures.
Arson cases were rare, with no reported incidents from 2010 to 2019. However, in 2022, one arson case was reported, resulting in a rate of 0.27 per 1,000 people. Notably, this single case represented 0.11% of state arson incidents, a significant proportion for a small town.
A strong correlation exists between the increase in property crimes and the declining population density. As the population density decreased from 4,478 per square mile in 2010 to 3,359 in 2022, property crimes increased. This suggests that the reduction in community presence may have created more opportunities for criminal activities.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), the city could see approximately 85 property crime incidents annually if current trends continue. This projection assumes a continued decline in population and a steady increase in crime rates.
In summary, Warrenton has faced a challenging decade with increasing property crime rates juxtaposed against a declining population. The most significant increases were observed in larceny-theft and burglary, while motor vehicle theft and arson, though less frequent, showed concerning upward trends. These changes have elevated the city's contribution to statewide crime statistics, particularly in larceny-theft and arson. The inverse relationship between population density and crime rates underscores the need for targeted community-based crime prevention strategies to address these evolving challenges.
