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Warrensburg, Missouri: Violent Crime Trends and Demographic Shifts
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Warrensburg, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased by 73.9%, from 23 to 40 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by only 2.2%, from 21,518 to 21,990 residents, indicating a disproportionate rise in violent crime relative to population growth.
The murder rate in the city has fluctuated over the years, with sporadic occurrences. In 2012, 2018, 2020, and 2021, there were 1, 1, 2, and 1 murders respectively, while other years saw no murders. This translates to a rate of 0.05 to 0.09 murders per 1,000 people in the years when murders occurred. The city's contribution to the state's murder statistics peaked at 0.32% in 2012 and 2020, indicating that despite the low numbers, these incidents represented a notable portion of Missouri's murders in those years.
Rape incidents have shown a concerning upward trend. In 2010, there was 1 reported rape, which increased to 16 in 2022, representing a 1,500% increase. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.05 in 2010 to 0.73 in 2022. Moreover, the city's contribution to the state's rape statistics grew significantly, from 0.09% in 2010 to 0.76% in 2022, peaking at 0.94% in 2021. This suggests that rape has become a more prominent issue in the city relative to the state.
Robbery trends have been more volatile. The number of robberies decreased from 8 in 2010 to 1 in 2022, an 87.5% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 0.37 to 0.05 over this period. The city's share of state robberies fluctuated, peaking at 0.21% in 2017 before falling to 0.03% in 2022, indicating a significant improvement in this area relative to state trends.
Aggravated assaults increased from 14 in 2010 to 23 in 2022, a 64.3% rise. The rate per 1,000 people grew from 0.65 to 1.05. The city's contribution to state aggravated assaults increased from 0.1% to 0.13%, peaking at 0.34% in 2018. This suggests that while aggravated assaults have increased, they have done so roughly in line with state trends.
There appears to be a correlation between the rise in violent crime and increasing population density, which grew from 2,287 people per square mile in 2010 to 2,337 in 2022. Additionally, median rent increased from $635 in 2013 to $947 in 2022, potentially indicating economic pressures that could contribute to crime. The racial composition remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease in the white population from 85% in 2013 to 83% in 2022, and small increases in Hispanic and multiracial populations.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall violent crime. The decline in robberies and the recent downturn in aggravated assaults suggest a possible continuation of these trends. However, the persistent increase in rape cases is concerning and may continue to rise without targeted interventions.
In summary, Warrensburg has experienced a complex evolution of violent crime over the past decade. While some categories like robbery have improved significantly, the sharp rise in rape cases and the overall increase in violent crimes outpacing population growth are alarming trends that warrant attention. The city's changing demographics and economic conditions appear to be influencing factors in these trends, highlighting the need for comprehensive strategies to address public safety concerns.
