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Warner, NH: Rising Home Values and Shifting Ownership Trends
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Warner, New Hampshire, is a small community that has experienced notable changes in its housing market over the past decade. This analysis explores the trends in homeownership rates, average home prices, and average rent prices, providing insights into the evolving dynamics of Warner's real estate landscape. The homeownership rate in Warner has shown a significant downward trend from 2013 to 2022. In 2013, 78% of residents owned their homes, but by 2022, this figure had dropped to 54%. Conversely, the percentage of renters increased from 22% to 46% during the same period. This shift coincides with a substantial rise in average home prices, which increased from $197,567 in 2013 to $370,092 in 2022, representing an 87% increase over nine years.
The relationship between federal interest rates and homeownership rates in Warner follows a well-established pattern. From 2013 to 2016, when interest rates were historically low (ranging from 0.11% to 0.40%), the homeownership rate remained relatively stable, hovering around 76%. However, as interest rates began to rise from 2017 onwards, reaching 1.68% in 2022, the homeownership rate declined more steeply, falling to 54% by 2022. This trend aligns with the general principle that higher interest rates can make mortgages less affordable, potentially discouraging homeownership.
As the renter population grew, average rent prices also increased, albeit with some fluctuations. In 2013, the average rent was $1,011, which rose to $1,045 by 2022, a modest 3.4% increase. However, it's worth noting that rent prices peaked at $1,083 in 2017 before slightly declining. The population of Warner fluctuated during this period, reaching a high of 1,597 in 2019 before settling at 1,515 in 2022. These population changes may have influenced rental demand and, consequently, rent prices.
In 2023 and 2024, Warner experienced further increases in average home prices. The average home price in 2023 was $390,101, rising to $404,446 in 2024. This represents a 9.3% increase from 2022 to 2024. Concurrently, federal interest rates climbed significantly, reaching 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024, potentially impacting homebuying affordability.
Looking ahead, based on the observed trends, we can forecast that average home prices in Warner are likely to continue rising over the next five years, albeit potentially at a slower rate due to higher interest rates. Average home prices could reach approximately $450,000 by 2029. Average rent prices may also continue to increase, potentially reaching around $1,200 by 2029, driven by the growing renter population and overall housing market pressures.
In summary, Warner has experienced a significant shift from homeownership to renting, coinciding with substantial increases in average home prices. The inverse relationship between rising interest rates and declining homeownership rates is evident. While rent prices have shown more modest growth, the increasing renter population suggests potential for further increases. The housing market in Warner appears to be evolving towards higher-priced homes and a larger rental market, reflecting broader economic and demographic changes in the area.
