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Violent Crime Trends in Worthington, Ohio: A Decade of Change Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Worthington, located in Ohio, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, starting at 15 in 2010 and ending at 14 in 2022, a slight decrease of 6.67% over the period. During this same timeframe, the population grew significantly from 21,743 to 26,431, an increase of 21.56%.
The murder rate in Worthington has remained exceptionally low, with only two recorded cases in 2017, representing 0.36% of the state's total murders that year. This translates to a rate of 0.084 murders per 1,000 people in 2017. In all other years from 2010 to 2022, there were no recorded murders. Given the population growth, this indicates an overall decline in the murder rate per capita, showcasing the city's ability to maintain public safety despite population increases.
Rape incidents have fluctuated over the years, with a peak of 5 cases in 2019 (0.13% of state total) and a low of 0 cases in 2012 and 2013. The rate per 1,000 people ranged from 0 to 0.21, with 2019 having the highest rate. The percentage of state rape cases attributable to Worthington varied, reaching a high of 0.13% in 2019 and dropping to 0.03% by 2022. This suggests that while rape remains a concern, its prevalence relative to the state has decreased in recent years.
Robbery trends show notable fluctuations. The highest number of robberies was 13 in 2014 (0.12% of state total), while the lowest was 0 in 2019. The rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.56 in 2014 and fell to 0 in 2019. The city's contribution to state robbery figures varied from 0% to 0.12%, indicating periods of both concern and improvement in this category of violent crime.
Aggravated assault cases have shown a recent uptick, with 10 cases reported in 2022 (0.06% of state total), the highest in the observed period. This translates to a rate of 0.38 per 1,000 people in 2022, a significant increase from previous years. The city's share of state aggravated assaults has risen from 0.01% in 2016 to 0.06% in 2022, suggesting a growing concern in this area relative to state trends.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between the increase in population density and the rise in aggravated assaults. As the population density grew from 3,974 per square mile in 2010 to 4,831 in 2022, aggravated assaults saw an overall increase. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the slight decrease in the white population percentage (from 87% in 2013 to 81% in 2022) and the increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a potential continuation of the upward trend in aggravated assaults if current conditions persist. The model suggests that by 2029, aggravated assaults could reach 15-20 cases annually if no interventions are made. Robbery rates are expected to remain relatively stable, while rape incidents may fluctuate between 1-3 cases per year. The murder rate is predicted to remain at or near zero, consistent with historical trends.
In summary, Worthington has experienced a complex evolution of violent crime patterns against the backdrop of significant population growth. While murder rates have remained exceptionally low, recent increases in aggravated assaults and fluctuations in other violent crime categories underscore the need for targeted public safety measures. The city's changing demographics, particularly the gradual shift in racial composition, may be influencing these trends and warrant further attention in community policing and crime prevention strategies.
