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Violent Crime Trends in Winterville, NC: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Winterville, located in North Carolina, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a notable increase from 9 incidents in 2020 to 17 in 2022, representing an 88.9% rise. During this same period, the population grew from 13,587 in 2010 to 15,349 in 2022, a 13% increase.
The murder rate in the city has remained relatively low, with most years reporting zero incidents. However, there were spikes in 2010 (2 murders) and 2015 (3 murders), which significantly impacted the city's percentage of state murders those years (0.79% and 1% respectively). In 2022, there was one murder, representing 0.17% of state murders. Given the small population, even a single incident can cause large percentage fluctuations. The murder rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.19 in 2015 and stood at 0.07 in 2022.
Rape incidents have been inconsistently reported, with several years showing "No Data Available." In years with data, the number of rapes ranged from 0 to 4. The most recent data from 2022 shows 4 rapes, representing 0.21% of state rapes and a rate of 0.26 per 1,000 people. This marks an increase from 2019, which had 2 reported rapes (0.12% of state rapes).
Robbery trends show fluctuation over the years, with a peak of 5 incidents in 2011 and 2017 (0.07% and 0.08% of state robberies respectively). The most recent data from 2022 shows 1 robbery, representing 0.02% of state robberies. The robbery rate per 1,000 people has generally decreased over time, from 0.29 in 2010 to 0.07 in 2022, indicating an improvement in this area relative to population growth.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in the city. The number of incidents fluctuated, with a high of 12 in 2016 (0.1% of state assaults) and a low of 3 in 2017 (0.02% of state assaults). In 2022, there were 11 aggravated assaults, representing 0.05% of state assaults. The rate per 1,000 people has remained relatively stable, ranging from 0.19 to 0.75 over the years, with 2022 showing a rate of 0.72.
A strong correlation appears between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 2,754 people per square mile in 2010 to 3,112 in 2022, there was a general upward trend in violent crime incidents. This suggests that as the city became more densely populated, it experienced more violent crime events.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a potential continuation of the recent uptick in violent crimes if current conditions persist. The total number of violent crimes could reach approximately 20-25 incidents annually by 2029, with aggravated assaults likely remaining the most common type of violent crime.
In summary, Winterville has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade, with recent years showing an increase in total incidents. While murder and robbery rates have generally remained low, aggravated assaults continue to be the primary concern. The correlation between population density and crime rates suggests that as the city continues to grow, it may face increasing challenges in maintaining public safety. Local law enforcement and community leaders should focus on strategies to mitigate violent crime, particularly aggravated assaults, to ensure the safety and well-being of the growing population.
