Robbery incidents have remained relatively low but variable. The number of robberies ranged from 0 to 3 per year between 2010 and 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 people fluctuated between 0 and 0.31 during this period. The city's percentage of state robberies peaked at 0.11% in 2022, indicating a slight increase in the city's contribution to Nevada's total robberies.

Aggravated assault has shown the most significant increase among violent crimes. In 2010, there were 10 reported cases, which rose to 35 in 2022, a 250% increase. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.99 in 2010 to 3.18 in 2022. The city's percentage of state aggravated assaults grew from 0.11% in 2010 to 0.41% in 2022, suggesting a growing share of Nevada's total aggravated assaults.

There appears to be a moderate correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,029 per square mile in 2010 to 1,125 in 2022, violent crimes also showed an overall upward trend. However, this correlation is not consistent across all years, indicating that other factors may also influence crime rates.

Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it is forecasted that by 2029, Winnemucca may see a potential increase in murders to 3-4 per year, rape incidents potentially stabilizing around 10-12 per year, robbery cases potentially increasing to 4-5 per year, and aggravated assaults potentially reaching 45-50 cases per year.

In summary, Winnemucca has experienced a concerning increase in violent crimes, particularly in aggravated assaults and, more recently, in murders and rapes. The city's contribution to Nevada's overall violent crime statistics has grown, especially in the categories of murder and aggravated assault. These trends, coupled with the city's population growth, suggest a need for targeted crime prevention strategies and increased law enforcement resources to address the rising violent crime rates in the coming years.