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Violent Crime Trends in Williamsburg, Kentucky: A Small City's Struggle with Aggravated Assault
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Williamsburg, Kentucky, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in total violent crimes, with a notable increase from 9 incidents in 2010 to 10 in 2022, representing an 11.11% rise. During this same period, the population grew from 9,945 to 10,866, a 9.26% increase, suggesting that crime rates have slightly outpaced population growth.
Murder trends in the city have been sporadic, with most years recording zero incidents. However, there were notable exceptions in 2013 and 2018, with one and three murders respectively. The murder rate per 1,000 people peaked in 2018 at 0.29, a significant spike from the usual zero rate. The percentage of state murders attributed to the city was highest in 2018 at 4.35%, an alarming figure for a small city. This sporadic pattern suggests that while murders are rare, they can have a significant impact when they occur.
Rape incidents have fluctuated over the years, ranging from zero to three cases annually. The rape rate per 1,000 people peaked in 2014 at 0.30, decreasing to 0.09 by 2022. The city's contribution to state rape cases has generally decreased, from 0.39% in 2010 to 0.14% in 2022. This downward trend, despite population growth, indicates improving safety in this category.
Robbery trends show variability, with incidents ranging from zero to four per year. The robbery rate per 1,000 people reached its highest in 2014 at 0.41, dropping to 0.09 by 2022. The city's share of state robberies has fluctuated, peaking at 0.31% in 2020 before decreasing to 0.14% in 2022. This overall downward trend in robbery rates is a positive sign for public safety.
Aggravated assault has shown the most consistent presence among violent crimes in the city. The rate per 1,000 people fluctuated, peaking at 0.77 in 2021 before decreasing to 0.74 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assaults has increased significantly, from 0.15% in 2010 to 0.49% in 2022. This upward trend in the city's share of state assaults is concerning and warrants attention.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 2,385 per square mile in 2010 to 2,606 in 2022, violent crimes also showed an overall upward trend. Additionally, the racial composition has remained relatively stable, with the white population decreasing slightly from 96% in 2013 to 94% in 2022, while other racial groups saw minor increases. This slight diversification coincides with the overall increase in violent crimes, though a direct causal relationship cannot be established without further analysis.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029, Williamsburg may see a continued slight increase in overall violent crimes. Aggravated assaults are likely to remain the most prevalent violent crime, potentially reaching 12-15 incidents annually. Robberies and rapes may stabilize at 1-3 incidents per year. Murders are expected to remain rare but could occur sporadically.
In summary, Williamsburg has experienced a complex evolution of violent crime patterns over the past decade. While some categories like rape and robbery have shown improvements, aggravated assaults have become a growing concern. The city's increasing population density appears to correlate with these crime trends. Moving forward, focused efforts on preventing aggravated assaults and maintaining the positive trends in other categories will be crucial for enhancing public safety in Williamsburg.
