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Violent Crime Trends in Willard, Missouri: A Study of Aggravated Assault Surge
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Willard, located in Missouri, has experienced notable changes in its violent crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a significant increase from 7 incidents in 2010 to 20 in 2022, representing a 185.7% rise. During this same period, the population grew from 15,104 to 16,710, a 10.6% increase.
The murder rate in the city has remained remarkably low, with only two incidents reported over the 13-year period. These occurred in 2014 and 2015, each representing 0.3% and 0.24% of the state's total murders respectively. With a rate of 0.07 murders per 1,000 people in those years, the city maintained a significantly lower murder rate compared to many urban areas. The absence of murders in most years suggests a generally safe environment, though the sporadic nature of these events makes it difficult to establish a definitive trend.
Rape incidents have been infrequent, with no more than one case reported annually when they did occur. The highest percentage of state rapes was 0.19% in 2010, dropping to 0.05% in 2018 and 2019. The rape rate per 1,000 people has remained low, with a maximum of 0.13 in 2010, decreasing to 0.06 by 2019. This downward trend, despite population growth, indicates improving safety with respect to sexual violence.
Robbery has been exceptionally rare in the city. Only one incident was reported in 2018, accounting for 0.02% of the state's robberies that year. With a rate of 0.06 robberies per 1,000 people in 2018, the city demonstrates a very low occurrence of this crime type. The absence of robberies in most years suggests a community with minimal property-related violent crime.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the area. The number of incidents has varied widely, from a low of 1 in 2015 to a high of 20 in 2022. The percentage of state aggravated assaults ranged from 0.01% to 0.11% over the years. The rate per 1,000 people fluctuated, reaching its peak in 2022 with 1.20 assaults per 1,000 residents. This recent uptick is concerning and warrants attention from local law enforcement.
There appears to be a correlation between the increase in violent crime, particularly aggravated assaults, and the growing population density. As the population density increased from 2,497 people per square mile in 2010 to 2,762 in 2022, the number of violent crimes, especially aggravated assaults, showed an upward trend. This suggests that as the city becomes more crowded, instances of violent confrontations may be increasing.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continued increase in aggravated assaults if current patterns persist. The total number of violent crimes could potentially reach 25-30 incidents annually, with aggravated assaults likely accounting for the majority. However, murder, rape, and robbery rates are expected to remain low, possibly with occasional isolated incidents.
In summary, Willard has experienced a notable increase in violent crime, primarily driven by aggravated assaults, despite maintaining low rates of more severe crimes like murder and rape. The correlation between population density and violent crime suggests that as the city continues to grow, proactive measures may be necessary to mitigate the rising trend in assaults and maintain the overall safety of the community.
