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Violent Crime Trends in Whiteville, Tennessee: A Small Town's Improving Safety Landscape
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
DATA SOURCE
United States Census Bureau: American Community Survey Data (ACS)
Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI): Offenses Known to Law Enforcement by State by City
Whiteville, located in Tennessee, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2021, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a notable decrease from 11 incidents in 2010 to 3 in 2021, representing a 72.7% reduction. During this same timeframe, the population grew from 5,730 in 2010 to 6,175 in 2021, an increase of 7.8%.
Examining murder trends, the city experienced a single incident in 2020, which represented 0.22% of the state's total murders that year. This translates to a rate of 0.17 murders per 1,000 residents. In all other years, there were no recorded murders. The isolated nature of this event makes it difficult to establish a trend, but it highlights the rarity of such crimes in the community.
Rape incidents were similarly sporadic, with only two reported cases over the 12-year period: one in 2011 and another in 2014. These incidents represented 0.07% and 0.05% of the state's total rapes in their respective years. The rate per 1,000 residents was 0.17 in 2011 and 0.16 in 2014. The infrequency of these crimes suggests they are not a persistent issue in the city.
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Robbery trends show more variation. The highest number of robberies (3) occurred in 2013 and 2016, representing 0.04% and 0.06% of the state's robberies, respectively. The rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 0.49 in 2013. However, there were several years with no reported robberies, including 2011, 2014, and 2018-2021. This indicates a general downward trend in robbery incidents over time.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in the city. The number of incidents ranged from a high of 14 in 2018 (2.45 per 1,000 residents) to a low of 3 in 2016 and 2019 (0.50 and 0.53 per 1,000 residents, respectively). The percentage of state aggravated assaults varied, reaching a peak of 0.07% in 2018. Despite fluctuations, there's a general downward trend, with 2021 showing 3 incidents (0.49 per 1,000 residents), representing 0.01% of the state's total.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As population density increased from 2,173 per square mile in 2010 to 2,342 in 2021, violent crime rates generally decreased. This suggests that the growth in population did not lead to an increase in violent crime, possibly indicating improved community cohesion or effective law enforcement strategies.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continuation of the overall downward trend. Based on the historical data, we project that the total number of violent crimes could stabilize at around 4-6 incidents per year. However, given the small population and low crime numbers, even minor fluctuations could significantly impact the crime rate.
In summary, Whiteville has shown a generally positive trend in reducing violent crime over the past decade, despite population growth. The most significant improvements have been in aggravated assaults, which constitute the majority of violent crimes in the city. The sporadic nature of more serious crimes like murder and rape suggests these are isolated incidents rather than systemic issues. As the community continues to grow, maintaining these low crime rates will be crucial for the city's safety and quality of life.
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