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Violent Crime Trends in Wheaton: A Decade of Low Homicides but Rising Assaults
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Wheaton, located in Illinois, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of violent crimes increased from 24 to 46, representing a 91.67% increase. During this same period, the population remained relatively stable, growing slightly from 59,268 in 2010 to 59,444 in 2020, a modest increase of 0.30%.
The murder rate in the city has remained exceptionally low, with only two incidents reported over the entire period - one in 2012 and another in 2017. This translates to a rate of approximately 0.017 murders per 1,000 people in those years. The percentage of state murders attributable to the city was 0.15% in 2012 and 0.11% in 2017. Despite these isolated incidents, the overall trend suggests that murder is an extremely rare occurrence in this community.
Rape cases have shown more fluctuation over time. In 2010, there were 6 reported cases, which dropped to 1 in 2012, but then rose to a peak of 16 in 2018. By 2020, the number had decreased to 9. The rate per 1,000 people ranged from 0.017 in 2012 to 0.27 in 2018. The city's contribution to state rape cases varied, reaching a high of 0.36% in 2018. This trend indicates a concerning increase in reported rapes, though recent years show some improvement.
Robbery incidents have fluctuated but generally increased over the decade. From 3 cases in 2010, the number rose to a high of 12 in 2014, before settling at 10 in 2020. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.051 in 2010 to 0.168 in 2020. The city's share of state robberies grew from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.09% in 2020, indicating a faster increase in robberies compared to the state average.
Aggravated assault cases show the most significant upward trend among violent crimes. Starting at 15 incidents in 2010, the number rose to 27 in 2020, an 80% increase. The rate per 1,000 people grew from 0.253 in 2010 to 0.454 in 2020. The city's contribution to state aggravated assaults increased from 0.06% to 0.10% over this period, suggesting a faster growth rate compared to the state average.
There appears to be a correlation between the increase in violent crimes and changes in racial demographics. As the white population percentage decreased from 84% in 2013 to 80% in 2022, and the Hispanic population increased from 5% to 7%, violent crime rates rose. Additionally, the rise in median rent from $1,393 in 2013 to $1,657 in 2022 coincides with the increase in violent crimes, potentially indicating a relationship between economic pressures and crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, we anticipate a continued increase in overall violent crimes. By 2029, five years from now, the total number of violent crimes could reach approximately 60-65 incidents annually, with aggravated assaults potentially accounting for the majority of this increase.
In summary, Wheaton has experienced a notable increase in violent crimes over the past decade, particularly in aggravated assaults and robberies. While murder rates remain extremely low, the rise in other violent crimes, especially when considered against the backdrop of changing demographics and economic factors, presents a challenge for local law enforcement and community leaders. The predicted continuation of this upward trend underscores the importance of implementing targeted crime prevention strategies and addressing underlying socio-economic factors to ensure the safety and well-being of the city's residents in the coming years.
