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Violent Crime Trends in Wendell, NC: A Tale of Disproportionate Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Wendell, a town in North Carolina, has experienced significant changes in its violent crime landscape alongside substantial population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased from 10 to 23, marking a 130% rise. During this same period, the population grew from 16,767 to 22,861, representing a 36.3% increase. This disproportionate growth in violent crime relative to population warrants a closer examination of specific crime categories and their trends.
The murder rate in Wendell has remained relatively low and stable over the years, with most years reporting zero murders. However, in 2021, there was one reported murder, which represented 0.16% of the state's total murders. This single incident translated to a rate of 0.05 murders per 1,000 residents, a significant spike for a town that had previously maintained a zero murder rate. Despite this outlier, the overall murder trend remains low, suggesting that Wendell generally maintains a safe environment in terms of homicides.
Rape incidents have fluctuated over the years, with available data showing 1 case in 2010 (0.09% of state total), 4 cases in 2011 (0.34% of state total), and 1 case each in 2019, 2020, and 2021 (0.06%, 0.06%, and 0.05% of state totals respectively). In 2022, there were 2 reported rapes (0.1% of state total). The rate per 1,000 residents has decreased from 0.06 in 2010 to 0.09 in 2022, indicating that while the absolute number has increased, the rate relative to population growth has remained relatively stable.
Robbery trends show fluctuation with a slight upward trend. In 2010, there were 3 robberies (0.04% of state total), which decreased to zero in 2013 and 2017. However, by 2022, the number increased to 3 again (0.06% of state total). The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.18 in 2010 to 0.13 in 2022, suggesting that while absolute numbers have remained similar, the relative rate has decreased due to population growth.
Aggravated assault shows the most significant increase among violent crimes. In 2010, there were 6 cases (0.04% of state total), which rose to 18 cases in 2022 (0.07% of state total). The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.36 in 2010 to 0.79 in 2022, indicating a substantial rise both in absolute numbers and relative to population growth. This trend suggests that aggravated assault has become a more pressing concern for the community over time.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between the increase in violent crime and population density. As the population density grew from 2,413 per square mile in 2010 to 3,291 in 2022, violent crime rates also increased. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the rise in violent crime and changes in racial demographics. The percentage of white residents decreased from 56% in 2013 to 44% in 2022, while the Hispanic population increased from 20% to 27% during the same period. This shift coincides with the overall increase in violent crime, though it's important to note that correlation does not imply causation.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's forecasted that by 2029 (five years from now), Wendell may see its violent crime rate continue to increase, potentially reaching around 30-35 incidents per year if current trends persist. Aggravated assault is likely to remain the most significant contributor to this increase.
In summary, Wendell has experienced a notable increase in violent crime, particularly in aggravated assaults, which has outpaced its substantial population growth. While murder rates remain low, the rise in other violent crimes, especially when considered alongside demographic shifts and increasing population density, presents a growing challenge for the community. As Wendell continues to expand, addressing these trends will be crucial for maintaining public safety and community well-being.
