Loading Content...
Violent Crime Trends in Wellington, Missouri: Stability Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
DATA SOURCE
United States Census Bureau: American Community Survey Data (ACS)
Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI): Offenses Known to Law Enforcement by State by City
Wellington, Missouri, is a small community that has experienced notable changes in its violent crime landscape over the years. From 2010 to 2022, the city saw a total of 2 violent crimes reported, with significant fluctuations in its population, which decreased from 1,029 in 2010 to 501 in 2022, a 51.31% decline.
The murder rate in Wellington has remained consistently at zero throughout the recorded period from 2010 to 2018. This stability in the absence of murders is particularly noteworthy given the significant population decline. The murder rate per 1,000 people and the percentage of state crime for murder have both remained at 0%, indicating that the city has maintained a safe environment in terms of homicides despite demographic changes.
Similarly, rape incidents have not been reported in Wellington from 2010 to 2018. The rape rate per 1,000 people and the city's contribution to the state's rape statistics have consistently been 0%. This absence of reported rape cases suggests a relatively safe environment for residents in terms of sexual violence, even as the population decreased.
Robbery trends in Wellington show a slight fluctuation. In 2016, there was one reported robbery, which translated to a rate of 1.15 robberies per 1,000 people, given the population of 871 that year. This single incident represented 0.02% of the state's robberies. However, in all other years from 2010 to 2018, there were no reported robberies. The isolated nature of this incident, against a backdrop of zero robberies in other years, suggests it was an anomaly rather than a trend.
Aggravated assault in the city showed a similar pattern to robbery. In 2018, there was one reported case of aggravated assault, resulting in a rate of 1.25 assaults per 1,000 people, based on the population of 798. This incident accounted for 0.01% of the state's aggravated assaults that year. For all other years in the dataset, no aggravated assaults were reported. This isolated incident, like the robbery case, appears to be an exception rather than indicative of a broader trend.
When examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors, a notable relationship emerges with population density. As the population density decreased from 944 people per square mile in 2010 to 459 in 2022, there was a slight increase in reported violent crimes, from zero in the early years to one incident each in 2016 and 2018. This suggests that changes in community dynamics associated with population decline may have had a minor impact on crime occurrences.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) is challenging due to the extremely low number of incidents. However, if current trends continue, Wellington may experience occasional isolated incidents of violent crime, potentially one or two cases over the five-year period, while maintaining an overall low crime rate.
In conclusion, Wellington has maintained a remarkably low violent crime rate despite significant population decline. The isolated incidents of robbery and aggravated assault in recent years warrant attention, but they do not yet indicate a consistent upward trend in violent crime. The city's ability to maintain such low crime rates in the face of demographic changes is noteworthy and suggests effective community safety measures.
