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Violent Crime Trends in Washington, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuations and Concerns
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Washington, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in its total violent crime numbers, with a notable increase from 21 incidents in 2010 to 24 in 2022, representing a 14.3% increase. During this same period, the population grew slightly from 19,693 in 2010 to 19,908 in 2022, a 1.1% increase.
Murder rates in the city have remained remarkably low, with zero reported cases in most years from 2010 to 2022. The only exception was in 2021, when 2 murders were reported, representing 0.42% of the state's total. This spike resulted in a rate of 0.1 murders per 1,000 residents for that year. However, the return to zero murders in 2022 suggests this was an anomaly rather than a trend.
Rape incidents have shown some variation over the years. In 2010, there was 1 reported case, which increased to 11 cases in 2018, representing a significant 1000% increase. By 2022, the number decreased to 3 cases. The rape rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 0.56 in 2018 and stood at 0.15 in 2022. The percentage of state rape cases attributable to the city fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.55% in 2018 and settling at 0.14% in 2022.
Robbery trends have been relatively stable with some fluctuations. The city reported 4 robberies in 2010, which remained the same in 2019, but decreased to zero in 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents was 0.2 in 2010 and dropped to 0 in 2022. The city's contribution to state robbery cases peaked at 0.11% in 2015 and fell to 0% in 2022, indicating a positive trend in this category of violent crime.
Aggravated assault has shown the most significant changes among violent crimes in the city. In 2010, there were 16 reported cases, which increased to 49 in 2021, a 206.25% increase. However, by 2022, this number decreased to 21 cases. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.81 in 2010 to a peak of 2.46 in 2021, before declining to 1.05 in 2022. The city's percentage of state aggravated assault cases reached a high of 0.29% in 2021 but decreased to 0.12% in 2022.
When examining correlations, a strong relationship is observed between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 2,038 per square mile in 2010 to 2,060 in 2022, there was a corresponding increase in overall violent crime incidents. Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between the city's racial composition and crime rates. With the white population consistently comprising over 90% of residents throughout the period, any fluctuations in crime rates occurred within a relatively homogeneous racial context.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall violent crime rates. This projection is based on the recent downward trend observed in 2022 across most categories of violent crime. Specifically, we predict that aggravated assaults may continue to fluctuate but remain below the peak levels seen in 2021, while robbery and murder rates are likely to remain very low or at zero.
In summary, Washington has experienced varying trends in violent crime over the past decade, with aggravated assault showing the most significant changes. The city's consistently low murder and robbery rates, coupled with recent decreases in rape incidents, suggest an overall positive trajectory in violent crime management. However, the fluctuations in aggravated assault cases warrant continued attention from local law enforcement and community leaders to maintain and improve public safety in the coming years.
