Robbery trends in Warsaw have fluctuated over the years. In 2010, there was 1 robbery (0.17 per 1,000 residents), representing 0.01% of the state's total. The number peaked at 4 in 2011 (0.68 per 1,000 residents and 0.06% of state total) before declining. By 2022, there were 3 robberies (0.60 per 1,000 residents), accounting for 0.06% of the state's total. This shows an overall increase in both the rate per capita and the city's contribution to state figures, even as the population decreased.

Aggravated assault incidents have shown considerable variation. In 2010, there were 2 cases (0.34 per 1,000 residents), representing 0.01% of the state's total. The number rose to a peak of 17 in 2016 (3.12 per 1,000 residents and 0.15% of state total) before declining. In 2022, there were 5 aggravated assaults (1.00 per 1,000 residents), accounting for 0.02% of the state's total. This indicates an overall increase in the rate per capita and the city's contribution to state figures compared to 2010, despite recent declines.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 1,839 per square mile in 2010 to 1,549 in 2022, there was a general trend of increased violent crime rates per capita. Additionally, changes in racial distribution seem to correlate with crime trends. The percentage of Black residents decreased from 45% in 2013 to 38% in 2022, while the Hispanic population increased from 10% to 16% during the same period. These demographic shifts coincided with fluctuations in violent crime rates, particularly in robbery and aggravated assault.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a potential stabilization or slight increase in overall violent crime rates if current population and demographic trends continue. The rape and robbery rates may continue to show slight increases, while aggravated assault rates could stabilize around the current levels.

In summary, Warsaw has experienced significant changes in its violent crime landscape from 2010 to 2022. Despite a declining population, the city has seen increases in per capita rates for certain violent crimes, particularly rape and robbery. The consistent absence of murders is a positive aspect, but the fluctuations in other violent crime categories suggest a need for targeted crime prevention strategies. These trends, when considered alongside demographic shifts, provide valuable insights for local law enforcement and policymakers in addressing public safety concerns in the coming years.