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Violent Crime Trends in Walnut, California: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Walnut, California, a suburban community located in the eastern part of Los Angeles County, has experienced notable fluctuations in its violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes in the city varied, with 29 incidents reported in 2010 and 35 in 2022, representing a 20.7% increase. During this same period, the population decreased from 30,917 in 2010 to 29,709 in 2022, a 3.9% reduction.
The murder rate in Walnut has remained relatively low, with most years reporting zero murders. However, there were isolated incidents in 2011, 2015, 2016, 2020, and 2022, each reporting one murder. The murder rate per 1,000 people ranged from 0 to 0.033, with the highest rate occurring in 2022. The percentage of state murders attributed to Walnut fluctuated between 0% and 0.13%, with the peak in 2016. These figures suggest that while murder is infrequent, it has become slightly more prevalent in recent years relative to the city's population.
Rape incidents in the city have shown considerable variation. The number of reported rapes ranged from 1 to 12 per year, with the highest number (12) occurring in 2017. The rape rate per 1,000 people fluctuated between 0.031 and 0.375, peaking in 2017. The city's contribution to state rape cases varied from 0.01% to 0.1%, with the highest percentage also in 2017. This data indicates that while rape is not consistently high, there have been years with significant spikes.
Robbery trends in Walnut have been relatively stable, with numbers ranging from 4 in 2010 to a peak of 17 in 2015. The robbery rate per 1,000 people varied from 0.129 to 0.534, with the highest rate in 2015. The city's percentage of state robberies remained low, ranging from 0.01% to 0.04%. This suggests that while robbery is more common than other violent crimes in the city, it has not shown a consistent upward trend.
Aggravated assault cases have fluctuated over the years, with a low of 9 incidents in 2018 and a high of 28 in 2011. The rate per 1,000 people ranged from 0.282 to 0.903, peaking in 2011. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases varied between 0.01% and 0.04%. This data indicates that aggravated assault remains the most common violent crime in the city, though its prevalence has varied significantly year to year.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 3,439 per square mile in 2010 to 3,304 in 2022, violent crime incidents showed a slight upward trend. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between the Asian population percentage and violent crime rates. As the Asian population increased from 61% in 2013 to 64% in 2022, violent crime rates showed some fluctuation but an overall increase.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, it is estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), Walnut may see a slight increase in violent crimes if current trends continue. The total number of violent crimes could potentially reach around 40-45 incidents per year, with aggravated assaults likely remaining the most common type of violent crime.
In summary, Walnut has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade, with an overall increase despite a slight population decrease. While murder rates remain low, there have been sporadic incidents in recent years. Rape and aggravated assault cases have shown the most variability, while robbery rates have remained relatively stable. The city's changing demographics, particularly the increasing Asian population, may be correlated with these crime trends. As Walnut moves forward, monitoring these trends and implementing targeted crime prevention strategies will be crucial for maintaining public safety and community well-being.
