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Violent Crime Trends in Viburnum, Missouri: A Decade of Low Incidents Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Viburnum, located in Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated between 0 and 2 incidents per year, showing no consistent trend. During this same period, the population decreased significantly from 1,423 in 2010 to 758 in 2022, a 46.7% decline.
The murder rate in this small city has remained consistently at zero throughout the recorded period from 2010 to 2020. With no murders reported, the murder rate per 1,000 people and the percentage of state murders both stand at 0%. This absence of murder cases suggests a relatively safe environment in terms of the most severe form of violent crime, despite the declining population.
Similarly, rape incidents have been non-existent in the city from 2010 to 2020. The rape rate per 1,000 people and the percentage of state rapes are both 0%. This consistent absence of reported rape cases indicates a positive aspect of public safety in the community, even as the population decreased.
Robbery trends mirror those of murder and rape, with zero incidents reported from 2010 to 2020. The robbery rate per 1,000 people and the percentage of state robberies remain at 0%. The lack of robberies, despite economic changes that often accompany population decline, suggests a maintained level of property security in the city.
Aggravated assault has been the only form of violent crime recorded in the city during this period. The number of aggravated assaults fluctuated between 0 and 2 incidents per year. In 2010, 2012, 2013, 2018, and 2020, there was 1 aggravated assault reported each year, except for 2012 when there were 2 incidents. The rate per 1,000 people varied due to the changing population, ranging from 0.75 per 1,000 in 2010 to 1.02 per 1,000 in 2020. The percentage of state aggravated assaults remained consistently low at 0.01% in years when incidents occurred.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between population density and aggravated assault incidents. As the population density decreased from 828 per square mile in 2010 to 441 in 2022, the occurrence of aggravated assaults remained sporadic but present. However, this correlation is not strong enough to suggest causation.
Applying predictive models based on the limited data available, it's challenging to forecast with high confidence. However, if current trends continue, we might expect to see between 0 and 2 violent crimes (specifically aggravated assaults) annually in Viburnum through 2029. The population is likely to continue declining, which could potentially impact the crime rate per capita, even if the absolute number of incidents remains low.
In summary, Viburnum has maintained a remarkably low violent crime rate across all categories, with aggravated assault being the only reported violent crime over the past decade. Despite a significant population decrease, the city has not seen a corresponding increase in violent crime, suggesting that factors other than population size play a crucial role in maintaining public safety in this small Missouri community.
