Loading Content...
Violent Crime Trends in Van Buren, Missouri: A Small Town's Fluctuating Safety Landscape
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Van Buren, a small town in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in both violent crime rates and population. The total number of violent crimes varied from 0 to 6 incidents per year, with the population growing from 863 in 2010 to 1,178 in 2022, representing a 36.5% increase over this period.
In terms of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, the city has maintained a consistently low rate. Throughout the recorded period from 2010 to 2022, there were no reported incidents of murder. This statistic remains unchanged despite the population growth, indicating a rate of 0 per 1,000 people and 0% of the state's total for this category of crime.
Rape incidents in Van Buren have been rare, with only one reported case in 2015. This single incident represented 0.05% of the state's total rapes for that year. With a population of 1,294 in 2015, this translated to a rate of approximately 0.77 per 1,000 people. The absence of reported rapes in other years suggests that this type of violent crime is not a persistent issue in the community.
Robbery statistics for Van Buren show a consistent pattern of zero incidents from 2010 to 2022. This trend has remained stable despite population growth, maintaining a rate of 0 per 1,000 people and 0% of the state's total robberies throughout the period.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents fluctuated over the years, with peaks of 6 cases in 2014 and 2019. In 2014, with a population of 1,267, the rate was approximately 4.74 per 1,000 people, representing 0.04% of the state's total. In 2019, with a population of 1,108, the rate increased to about 5.42 per 1,000 people, again accounting for 0.04% of the state's total. The most recent data from 2022 shows 4 incidents, or about 3.40 per 1,000 people, representing 0.02% of the state's total.
Examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors reveals some interesting patterns. The city's population density increased from 431 people per square mile in 2010 to 589 in 2022, coinciding with periods of higher aggravated assault rates. Median rent also showed significant fluctuations, ranging from $298 in 2021 to $614 in 2019, but a clear correlation with violent crime rates is not apparent. The racial distribution has remained predominantly white, with the percentage of white residents consistently above 94% throughout the period, showing little correlation with crime rate changes.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the fluctuating pattern seen in recent years. Based on the historical data, we might expect the number of aggravated assaults to range between 2 to 6 incidents annually, with other forms of violent crime remaining rare or non-existent.
In summary, Van Buren has maintained relatively low violent crime rates despite population growth. Aggravated assault emerges as the primary concern, showing fluctuations that may correlate with changes in population density. The city's consistently low rates of murder, rape, and robbery, combined with its stable racial composition, suggest a generally safe community. However, ongoing monitoring of aggravated assault trends will be crucial for maintaining public safety in the coming years.
