Robbery trends in Valley Mills have shown some variation. In 2011, there was one reported robbery, and in 2014, there were two. These incidents represented 0% and 0.01% of the state's total robberies, respectively. The robbery rate per 1,000 people was approximately 0.43 in 2011 and 0.87 in 2014. For the other years in the dataset, including 2010, 2012, 2013, and 2020-2022, no robberies were reported, indicating an overall low incidence of this crime type.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of aggravated assaults fluctuated over the years, with peaks of 7 cases in 2011 (about 2.98 per 1,000 people) and 3 cases in 2014 (about 1.31 per 1,000 people). The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault total ranged from 0% to 0.01%. In recent years (2020-2022), there has been a notable decrease, with 0 cases reported in 2020 and 2022, and 2 cases in 2021.

When examining correlations between violent crime trends and demographic factors, a notable relationship emerges with the racial distribution in the city. The proportion of white residents decreased slightly from 83% in 2014 to 79% in 2022, while the Hispanic population increased from 11% to 14% over the same period. This demographic shift coincides with a general downward trend in violent crimes, particularly in the most recent years.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), based on the recent downward trend and assuming stable demographic patterns, it's projected that Valley Mills may continue to experience low levels of violent crime. The model suggests that aggravated assaults, being the most common violent crime, may fluctuate between 0 to 2 cases annually, while other types of violent crimes are likely to remain at or near zero.

In summary, Valley Mills has maintained relatively low violent crime rates over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the primary concern. The city's contribution to Texas's overall violent crime statistics has been minimal, never exceeding 0.02% for any category. The recent years' data showing zero or very few violent crimes, coupled with modest population growth and slight demographic shifts, suggests a trend towards increased safety in the community. However, due to the small population size, even minor fluctuations in crime numbers can significantly impact rates, necessitating ongoing vigilance in maintaining public safety.