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Violent Crime Trends in Urbana, Missouri: A Growing City with Declining Crime Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Urbana, located in Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2018, the city experienced fluctuations in its violent crime rates, with a total of 8 violent crimes reported during this timeframe. Notably, the population of Urbana grew significantly, increasing by 25% from 894 in 2010 to 1,118 in 2022, which provides an important context for analyzing crime trends.
Murder rates in Urbana remained consistently at zero throughout the recorded period from 2010 to 2018. This stability in the absence of murders is particularly noteworthy given the population growth. The murder rate per 1,000 people stayed at 0, and the city's contribution to the state's murder statistics remained at 0% throughout this period. This consistent lack of murders suggests a relatively safe environment in terms of the most severe form of violent crime.
Similarly, rape incidents were not reported in the available data for Urbana from 2010 to 2018. The rape rate per 1,000 people and the city's percentage of state rape crimes both remained at 0%. This absence of reported rapes, even as the population grew, indicates a positive trend in this aspect of public safety.
Robbery trends in Urbana show minimal activity. There was only one reported robbery in 2013, accounting for 0.02% of the state's robberies that year. The robbery rate per 1,000 people was approximately 1.16 in 2013, based on the population of 861 that year. For all other years in the dataset, robberies were at zero. This isolated incident amid years of no robberies suggests that robbery is not a persistent issue in the city.
Aggravated assault was the most prevalent form of violent crime in Urbana during this period. The city experienced a peak of 3 aggravated assaults in 2012, representing 0.02% of the state's total. This translates to a rate of about 3.56 assaults per 1,000 people, based on the 2012 population of 842. There were also single incidents in 2011 (1.18 per 1,000 people) and 2013 (1.16 per 1,000 people), and two incidents in 2014 (2.14 per 1,000 people). However, from 2015 to 2018, no aggravated assaults were reported, indicating a positive trend in recent years.
When examining correlations, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 928 per square mile in 2010 to 1,161 in 2022, violent crime rates generally decreased, with the last reported incidents occurring in 2014. However, this correlation is not strong enough to suggest a causal relationship.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that Urbana will likely maintain its low violent crime rates over the next five years (up to 2029). The consistent zero or near-zero crime rates in recent years of the dataset suggest this trend may continue, barring any significant changes in local conditions.
In summary, Urbana has demonstrated a promising trend in violent crime reduction. From a peak in aggravated assaults in 2012, the city has seen a decline to zero reported violent crimes in the latter years of the data set. This positive development, coupled with significant population growth, suggests that Urbana has been successful in maintaining public safety while expanding. The consistent absence of murders and rapes, along with the near-absence of robberies, paints a picture of a relatively safe community. As Urbana continues to grow, maintaining these low crime rates will be crucial for the city's overall quality of life and attractiveness to potential residents and businesses.
