Robbery trends in the city demonstrate significant fluctuations. In 2015, there were 2 robberies (0.05% of state total), which increased sharply to 8 in 2016 (0.26% of state total), and further to 10 in 2017 (0.37% of state total). The number then decreased to 7 in 2018 (0.24% of state total) and further to 4 in 2022 (0.31% of state total). The robbery rate per 1,000 residents peaked in 2017 at 1.78 before declining to 0.61 in 2022, indicating an overall improvement in recent years despite population growth.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in the city, showing an overall increasing trend. From 31 cases in 2015 (0.27% of state total), it decreased to 20 in 2016 (0.18% of state total) before rising again to 31 in 2017 (0.28% of state total), 39 in 2018 (0.33% of state total), and 44 in 2022 (0.39% of state total). The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 5.42 in 2015 to 6.70 in 2022, indicating that aggravated assaults have outpaced population growth and become a more significant concern for the community.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between the increase in violent crime and the city's changing racial demographics. The percentage of Black residents increased from 73% in 2015 to 74% in 2022, while the White population decreased from 17% to 14% over the same period. This shift coincides with the overall increase in violent crime, particularly aggravated assaults. Additionally, the rising Hispanic population, from 5% in 2015 to 11% in 2022, correlates with fluctuations in robbery rates.

Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Union Springs may see a continued increase in overall violent crime, potentially reaching around 60-65 incidents annually. Aggravated assaults are likely to remain the primary contributor, possibly exceeding 50 cases per year. Robbery rates may stabilize or slightly decrease, while murder rates could remain relatively constant at 1-2 incidents annually. Rape incidents are challenging to predict due to their volatility but may remain low or sporadic.

In summary, Union Springs has experienced a notable increase in violent crime over the past seven years, primarily driven by aggravated assaults. The city's changing demographic composition appears to correlate with these crime trends. While some categories like robbery have shown recent improvements, the overall violent crime rate has outpaced population growth, suggesting a need for targeted interventions and community-based strategies to address these challenges in the coming years.