Robbery trends in the city show a concerning increase. In 2010, there were 43 robberies, which rose dramatically to 121 in 2016, before decreasing slightly to 81 in 2017. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents increased from 1.27 in 2010 to 2.12 in 2017. Moreover, Union City's share of state robberies more than doubled, from 0.74% in 2010 to 1.72% in 2017, indicating that robbery became a more significant issue in the city relative to the rest of Georgia.

Aggravated assault cases in Union City fluctuated considerably. From 296 cases in 2010, the number dropped to 84 in 2012, then rose again to 164 in 2017. Despite these fluctuations, the rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 8.75 in 2010 to 4.30 in 2017. Interestingly, the city's percentage of state aggravated assaults decreased from 2.64% in 2010 to 1.60% in 2017, suggesting that while this crime remained a concern, its prevalence in Union City decreased relative to the state average.

Examining correlations between violent crime trends and demographic factors reveals some notable patterns. The increase in violent crimes, particularly robberies, coincides with a significant population growth and increasing population density. The population density rose from 1,720 per square mile in 2010 to 2,409 in 2022, potentially contributing to increased opportunities for certain types of crimes. Additionally, there's a correlation between the city's racial composition and crime rates. The Black population percentage increased from 86% in 2013 to 91% in 2022, correlating with the overall increase in violent crimes during this period.

Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029, Union City may see a continued increase in violent crimes, particularly robberies and aggravated assaults. The murder rate is expected to remain relatively stable, while rape incidents may show a slight increase. The total number of violent crimes could potentially reach around 300-350 annually, assuming population growth and demographic trends continue along their current trajectories.

In conclusion, Union City has experienced complex shifts in its violent crime landscape against a backdrop of rapid population growth. While some crime categories like aggravated assault have shown improvement relative to population size, others like robbery have become more prevalent. The city's increasing share of state-level crimes in certain categories suggests that targeted interventions may be necessary to address these specific issues. As Union City continues to grow, balancing development with effective crime prevention strategies will be crucial for maintaining community safety and quality of life.