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Violent Crime Trends in Ulysses, Kansas: A Small City's Struggle with Aggravated Assault
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Ulysses, located in Kansas, has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade, set against a backdrop of population decline. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes in the city varied significantly, ranging from a low of 4 incidents in 2015 and 2016 to a high of 24 in 2020. Meanwhile, the population decreased from 7,744 in 2010 to 7,336 in 2022, representing a 5.27% decline.
Murder rates in the city have remained relatively low, with only three reported cases over the 13-year period. These occurred in 2015, 2017, and 2019, each representing 0.99%, 1%, and 1.47% of the state's total murders respectively. When considering the population, these incidents translate to approximately 0.13 murders per 1,000 residents in the years they occurred. The sporadic nature of these events makes it challenging to identify a clear trend, but it's notable that the city has maintained zero murders in most years despite the overall population decline.
Rape incidents in Ulysses have been infrequent, with only four reported cases over the period: one each in 2015, 2020, and 2022, and two in 2016. The rate per 1,000 residents ranged from 0.13 to 0.26 in the years with reported cases. The percentage of state rape crimes attributed to the city remained low, never exceeding 0.22% in any given year. This suggests that while rape occurs occasionally, it is not a prevalent issue in the city compared to state-wide statistics.
Robbery rates in the city have been consistently low, with only six reported incidents over the 13-year period. The highest number of robberies in a single year was two, occurring in 2010 and 2018. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents never exceeded 0.26, and the city's contribution to state robbery statistics remained minimal, peaking at 0.18% in 2018. The infrequency of robberies indicates that it is not a major concern for the community.
Aggravated assault has been the most common form of violent crime in Ulysses, showing significant fluctuations over the years. The number of incidents ranged from a low of 2 in 2015 and 2016 to a high of 23 in 2020. The rate per 1,000 residents varied accordingly, from 0.26 to 3.09. Notably, the city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics peaked at 0.82% in 2020, coinciding with the highest number of incidents. This spike in 2020 stands out as an anomaly, potentially influenced by broader societal factors during that year.
There appears to be a correlation between the Hispanic population percentage and violent crime rates in the city. As the Hispanic population increased from 45% in 2013 to 49% in 2022, there was a general upward trend in violent crime incidents, particularly in aggravated assaults. However, it's important to note that this correlation does not imply causation, and other socioeconomic factors may be at play.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which is five years from now in 2024), we can anticipate a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall violent crime rates. This prediction is based on the observed cyclical nature of crime incidents and the ongoing population decline. Aggravated assaults are likely to remain the predominant form of violent crime, potentially averaging around 10-15 incidents per year.
In summary, Ulysses has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates against a backdrop of gradual population decline. While murder and rape incidents have been sporadic and infrequent, aggravated assaults have shown the most variability and represent the primary violent crime concern. The city's contribution to state-wide crime statistics remains relatively low across all categories. Moving forward, the community may benefit from focused efforts on assault prevention and community policing strategies to maintain or further reduce violent crime rates.
