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Violent Crime Trends in Tuscola, Illinois: A Decade of Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Tuscola, located in Illinois, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated significantly, peaking at 33 incidents in 2015 and dropping to a low of 7 in both 2020 and 2022. This represents a 133.33% decrease in violent crime over the 12-year period. Concurrently, the population grew from 4,798 in 2010 to 5,091 in 2022, an increase of 6.11%.
Analyzing murder trends, the city has maintained an exceptionally low rate, with zero reported cases throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022. This consistent absence of murders translates to a 0% murder rate per 1,000 people and a 0% contribution to the state's murder statistics. Such a trend suggests a remarkably safe environment in terms of the most severe form of violent crime.
Rape incidents in the city have been sporadic and infrequent. The data shows only two years with reported cases: 2 incidents in 2016 and 2 in 2019. This translates to a rate of 0.4 rapes per 1,000 people in those years. The percentage of state rape crimes attributed to the city was 0.06% in 2016 and 0.04% in 2019. The rarity of these incidents, while concerning when they occur, indicates that sexual violence is not a persistent problem in the community.
Robbery trends show minimal occurrences, with only two years reporting incidents: 1 in 2017 and 2 in 2018. This translates to rates of 0.19 and 0.4 robberies per 1,000 people respectively. The city's contribution to state robbery statistics was 0.01% in 2017 and 0.02% in 2018. The low frequency of robberies suggests that property-related violent crime is not a significant issue in the area.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents peaked at 33 in 2015 and reached a low of 7 in 2020 and 2022. The rate per 1,000 people ranged from a high of 6.65 in 2015 to a low of 1.37 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics varied, reaching 0.26% in 2013 and dropping to 0.03% in 2020. This downward trend in aggravated assaults is a positive sign for community safety.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between violent crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 1,626 per square mile in 2010 to 1,726 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate tended to decrease. Additionally, there seems to be a weak correlation between the decline in violent crime and the slight increase in racial diversity, as the percentage of white residents decreased from 94% in 2019 to 90% in 2022.
Applying predictive models based on the recent downward trend in violent crime, it's projected that by 2029, the city could potentially see a further reduction in violent crime incidents. If the current trend continues, the number of annual violent crimes could stabilize around 5-6 incidents per year.
In summary, Tuscola has demonstrated a significant overall reduction in violent crime from 2010 to 2022, particularly in aggravated assaults, which constitute the majority of violent incidents. The absence of murders, infrequent occurrences of rape and robbery, and the declining trend in assaults paint a picture of a community becoming increasingly safer over time. These trends, coupled with modest population growth and increased diversity, suggest that Tuscola is making positive strides in maintaining public safety and fostering a secure environment for its residents.
