Robbery trends in Troy have been relatively low and sporadic. The data shows only two years with reported robberies: 1 case in 2010 and 2 cases in 2018. This translates to rates of 0.31 and 0.64 robberies per 1,000 people for those years, respectively. The city's contribution to the state's robbery cases was minimal, peaking at 0.01% in 2018. The infrequency of robberies suggests that it is not a persistent issue for the community, though the slight increase in 2018 may warrant attention to prevent any potential upward trends.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in Troy. The number of cases has fluctuated over the years, with a high of 7 cases in 2010 and 2012, and a low of 0 in 2016. The most recent data from 2020 shows 2 cases. When adjusted for population, the rate of aggravated assaults per 1,000 people has generally decreased from 2.20 in 2010 to 0.48 in 2020. The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault cases has also decreased from 0.01% in earlier years to 0% in 2020, indicating an improvement relative to state-wide trends.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 682 per square mile in 2010 to 696 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate showed a general downward trend. This suggests that the growing population density has not led to an increase in violent crime, which is a positive indicator for the city's development.

Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that Troy may continue to see low and potentially decreasing violent crime rates over the next five years, extending to 2029. The sporadic nature of violent crimes in the city makes precise predictions challenging, but the overall trend suggests that the city may maintain its relatively low crime rates, particularly if it continues its apparent success in preventing homicides and managing other violent crimes.

In summary, Troy, Texas, has demonstrated a generally positive trend in violent crime rates over the past decade, despite population growth. The city's consistent absence of murders, low robbery rates, and decreasing aggravated assault trends contribute to a picture of a relatively safe community. While the spike in rape cases in 2020 is a concern, the overall violent crime trends suggest that Troy has been effective in maintaining public safety. As the city continues to grow, maintaining these low crime rates will be crucial for the well-being and attractiveness of the community.