Loading Content...
Violent Crime Trends in Troy, Missouri: A Study of Rapid Population Growth and Aggravated Assault Surge
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Troy, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated significantly, with a notable increase from 3 incidents in 2010 to 37 in 2022, representing a 1,133% increase. During this same period, the population grew from 14,264 to 18,574, a 30.2% increase, indicating that crime rates outpaced population growth substantially.
Murder rates in the city have remained consistently low, with no reported cases throughout the analyzed period. This stability is particularly noteworthy given the population growth, maintaining a murder rate of 0 per 1,000 residents. The city's contribution to the state's murder statistics has consequently remained at 0% throughout the years, suggesting effective prevention or extremely rare occurrences of such severe crimes.
Rape incidents have shown some variation over time. In 2010, there were no reported cases, but by 2022, there was 1 reported case. The highest number of reported rapes was 2 per year, occurring in 2015, 2016, and 2017. Despite these fluctuations, the rate per 1,000 residents has remained relatively low, peaking at 0.13 per 1,000 in 2015 and decreasing to 0.05 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's contribution to state rape statistics has ranged from 0% to 0.11%, with the highest percentage in 2015.
Robbery trends demonstrate notable variability. From no reported cases in 2010, robberies peaked at 7 incidents in 2012, representing 0.13% of state robberies. The rate per 1,000 residents reached its highest at 0.46 in 2012. By 2022, there were 4 reported robberies, or 0.22 per 1,000 residents, contributing to 0.13% of state robberies. This indicates a slight downward trend in robbery rates relative to population growth.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. In 2010, there were 3 reported cases, which dramatically increased to 58 in 2015, representing a peak of 3.74 incidents per 1,000 residents and 0.36% of state aggravated assaults. By 2022, the number had decreased to 32 cases, or 1.72 per 1,000 residents, contributing to 0.18% of state aggravated assaults. This trend suggests a significant spike followed by a gradual decline in aggravated assault rates.
A strong correlation exists between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,847 per square mile in 2010 to 2,406 in 2022, violent crime incidents generally rose, though not uniformly. The racial distribution shows a slight decrease in the white population from 93% in 2013 to 90% in 2022, coinciding with a modest increase in violent crimes. However, this correlation should be interpreted cautiously without assuming causation.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029 (five years from now), the city may experience approximately 45-50 violent crimes annually, assuming current trends continue and no significant interventions or societal changes occur.
In summary, Troy has experienced a notable increase in violent crimes over the past decade, particularly in aggravated assaults, while maintaining low rates of murder. The city's growth has been accompanied by evolving crime patterns, with some categories showing more volatility than others. These trends underscore the importance of targeted crime prevention strategies and community engagement to address the specific challenges faced by this growing Missouri city.
