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Violent Crime Trends in Toms River: Coastal New Jersey Community Sees Mixed Results
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Toms River, a coastal community in New Jersey, has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade, set against a backdrop of steady population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes decreased by 18.8%, from 101 incidents to 82. During this same period, the population grew by 6.3%, from 89,390 to 95,021 residents, indicating an overall improvement in public safety relative to population size.
The murder rate in the city has remained relatively low and stable over the years, with slight fluctuations. In 2010, there were 3 murders, representing 1.07% of the state's total. This number decreased to 1 in 2022, accounting for 0.69% of the state's murders. When adjusted for population, the murder rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.034 in 2010 to 0.011 in 2022, a significant improvement. This trend suggests that despite population growth, the city has maintained a low murder rate, consistently representing less than 1.1% of the state's total murders.
Rape incidents have shown considerable variation over the years. In 2010, there were 5 reported rapes, representing 0.95% of the state's total. By 2022, this number had increased to 21, accounting for 3.19% of the state's rapes. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.056 in 2010 to 0.221 in 2022. This significant increase, both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of state totals, suggests a concerning trend that warrants attention from local law enforcement and community leaders.
Robbery trends show a marked improvement over the analyzed period. In 2010, there were 52 robberies, representing 0.62% of the state's total. By 2022, this number had dramatically decreased to 5, accounting for only 0.21% of the state's robberies. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.582 in 2010 to 0.053 in 2022. This substantial decrease in robberies, both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of state totals, indicates successful crime prevention strategies in this area.
Aggravated assault cases have shown an increase over time. In 2010, there were 41 incidents, representing 0.48% of the state's total. By 2022, this number had risen to 55, accounting for 0.97% of the state's aggravated assaults. The rate per 1,000 people increased slightly from 0.459 in 2010 to 0.579 in 2022. This upward trend, both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of state totals, suggests a need for focused intervention strategies to address this specific type of violent crime.
Examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate positive correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 2,292 per square mile in 2010 to 2,436 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate saw fluctuations but generally trended upward in recent years. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between median rent and certain types of violent crime, particularly rape and aggravated assault. As median rent increased from $1,274 in 2013 to $1,428 in 2022, these crime categories showed an upward trend.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of current patterns. Murders are likely to remain low but stable, while rape incidents may continue to increase if current trends persist. Robberies are expected to maintain their downward trajectory, potentially reaching even lower levels. Aggravated assaults may continue their gradual increase unless targeted interventions are implemented.
In summary, Toms River has shown mixed results in its violent crime trends over the past decade. While murders and robberies have decreased significantly, both in absolute numbers and relative to the state's totals, rape and aggravated assault incidents have increased. The city's growing population and increasing density appear to have some correlation with these trends. Moving forward, focused efforts on preventing sexual assaults and aggravated assaults, while maintaining the successful strategies that have reduced robberies, could help improve overall public safety in this coastal New Jersey community.
