Robbery trends in Timberville have been minimal. The data shows no robberies reported from 2010 to 2017. In 2018, there was one robbery reported, accounting for 0.04% of the state's robberies. Another robbery was reported in 2022, representing 0.05% of the state's total. The robbery rate per 1,000 people was approximately 0.23 in 2018 and 0.19 in 2022. These low numbers suggest that robbery is not a significant ongoing concern in the city.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of aggravated assaults fluctuated over the years, with notable increases in recent years. In 2010, there was 1 aggravated assault, rising to 6 in 2021, and then decreasing to 4 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.23 in 2010 to 1.17 in 2021, before dropping to 0.77 in 2022. The percentage of state crime for aggravated assault rose from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.08% in 2021, then decreased slightly to 0.06% in 2022. This trend suggests a growing concern with aggravated assaults in the city, particularly in recent years.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between the increase in violent crimes and population density. As the population density increased from 3,249 per square mile in 2010 to 3,880 in 2022, violent crimes also showed an overall upward trend. Additionally, there's a potential correlation with median rent, which rose from $670 in 2013 to $940 in 2022, coinciding with the increase in violent crimes. The racial distribution has remained relatively stable, with the white population consistently around 90%, showing no strong correlation with crime trends.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a potential continuation of the recent trends. Based on the data, we might expect the number of violent crimes to fluctuate between 5 and 8 annually, with aggravated assaults likely remaining the predominant form of violent crime. The rate per 1,000 people could stabilize around 1.0 to 1.5, assuming the population continues to grow at a similar rate.

In summary, Timberville has experienced a notable increase in violent crimes over the past decade, primarily driven by aggravated assaults. While murder rates have remained at zero and rape and robbery incidents have been infrequent, the overall trend suggests a growing concern for public safety. The correlation with increasing population density and rising median rent prices may indicate socioeconomic factors influencing crime rates. As the city continues to grow, addressing these trends and implementing targeted crime prevention strategies will be crucial for maintaining community safety and quality of life in Timberville.