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Violent Crime Trends in Thompson Falls, Montana: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Thompson Falls, a small city in Montana, has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates against a backdrop of changing population dynamics. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased from 5 to 8, representing a 60% increase. During this same period, the population decreased slightly from 2,248 to 2,210, a 1.7% decline.
Murder rates in Thompson Falls have remained consistently at zero throughout the recorded period from 2010 to 2022. This stability is particularly noteworthy given the population changes, maintaining a rate of 0 murders per 1,000 people. The city's contribution to the state's murder statistics has consistently been 0%, indicating that Thompson Falls has not been a factor in Montana's overall murder rates.
Rape incidents have shown variability over the years. In 2011, there was 1 reported case (0.43 per 1,000 people), representing 0.6% of the state's total. The rate increased to 2 cases in 2014 and 2018 (0.97 and 0.93 per 1,000 people respectively), with the percentage of state crime peaking at 0.72% in 2014. By 2022, there were 3 reported rapes (1.36 per 1,000 people), accounting for 0.75% of the state's total. This represents a concerning upward trend in both absolute numbers and rate per capita.
Robbery rates in Thompson Falls have remained at zero throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022. Similar to murder rates, this consistency is significant given the population changes, maintaining a rate of 0 robberies per 1,000 people and 0% contribution to the state's robbery statistics.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. In 2010, there were 5 cases (2.22 per 1,000 people), representing 0.6% of the state's total. The numbers fluctuated over the years, reaching a low of 0 in 2012 and 2013, and peaking at 6 cases in 2015 (3.18 per 1,000 people). By 2022, there were 5 aggravated assaults (2.26 per 1,000 people), accounting for 0.21% of the state's total. This indicates a relatively stable trend in recent years, with some fluctuations in the city's contribution to state statistics.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between changes in racial demographics and violent crime rates. As the white population percentage decreased from 96% in 2013 to 87% in 2022, violent crime incidents increased. Concurrently, the Hispanic population grew from 2% to 7%, and those identifying as two or more races increased from 0% to 4%. However, it's important to note that correlation does not imply causation, and these demographic shifts coincide with other socioeconomic changes that could influence crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, if current patterns persist, Thompson Falls may see a continued slight increase in violent crimes over the next seven years (up to 2029). The rape rate may continue its upward trend, potentially reaching 4-5 cases per year by 2029. Aggravated assaults may stabilize around 5-6 cases annually. However, murder and robbery rates are likely to remain at or near zero, given their historical stability.
In summary, Thompson Falls has experienced a nuanced shift in its violent crime landscape from 2010 to 2022. While murder and robbery rates have remained consistently low, rape incidents have shown a concerning increase. Aggravated assault, though fluctuating, remains the most common violent crime. These trends, coupled with demographic changes, suggest a complex interplay of factors influencing the city's safety profile. As Thompson Falls moves forward, addressing the rising rape incidents and maintaining vigilance against aggravated assaults will be crucial for ensuring community safety.
