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Violent Crime Trends in Thomas, Oklahoma: A Small City's Sudden Shift
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Thomas, located in Oklahoma, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. With a population of 1,523 in 2022, this small community has experienced notable changes in its crime landscape. Over the period from 2017 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased from 0 to 2, representing an infinite percentage increase. During this same timeframe, the population fluctuated, growing from 1,495 in 2017 to 1,523 in 2022, a modest 1.87% increase.
Examining the murder rate, the city has maintained a consistent record of zero murders from 2017 through 2022. This statistic remains unchanged despite population fluctuations, resulting in a murder rate of 0 per 1,000 people throughout the period. The percentage of state murders attributed to the city also remains at 0%, indicating no contribution to the state's murder statistics.
Similarly, rape incidents have been non-existent in the city from 2017 to 2022. The rape rate per 1,000 people and the city's percentage of state rapes both stand at 0%, demonstrating a consistently safe environment in this regard.
Robbery trends show a significant change in 2022. From 2017 to 2021, there were no reported robberies. However, in 2022, one robbery was recorded. This single incident translates to a rate of 0.66 robberies per 1,000 people in 2022. More notably, this robbery accounted for 0.07% of the state's total robberies in 2022, indicating a sudden, albeit small, contribution to the state's crime statistics.
Aggravated assault follows a similar pattern to robbery. From 2017 to 2021, no aggravated assaults were reported. In 2022, one incident occurred, resulting in a rate of 0.66 aggravated assaults per 1,000 people. This single case represented 0.01% of the state's total aggravated assaults for that year, marking a slight increase in the city's impact on state crime figures.
When examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors, a notable relationship emerges with population density. The city's population density increased from 1,300 per square mile in 2017 to 1,325 per square mile in 2022. This 1.92% increase in density coincides with the appearance of violent crimes in 2022, suggesting a potential link between increased population concentration and crime incidence.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), the city may see a slight increase in violent crimes. Based on the sudden appearance of crimes in 2022, the model suggests there could be 3-4 violent crimes annually by 2029, assuming current trends continue. However, this projection should be interpreted cautiously given the limited historical data and the city's previously crime-free status.
In summary, Thomas has transitioned from a period of no reported violent crimes to experiencing its first incidents in 2022. This shift, while numerically small, represents a significant change for a community of this size. The correlation with increasing population density suggests that as the city grows, it may face new challenges in maintaining its previously unblemished safety record. Moving forward, local authorities may need to implement proactive measures to address this emerging trend and preserve the city's overall low crime environment.
