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Violent Crime Trends in Terrell Hills: A Texas City's Anomalous 2020 Murder
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Terrell Hills, a small community in Texas covering 1.61 square miles, has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates alongside population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes varied significantly, ranging from 0 to 9 incidents annually. Meanwhile, the population grew from 4,885 in 2010 to 5,045 in 2022, representing a 3.3% increase.
Murder rates in the city have been exceptionally low, with only one recorded incident in 2020 and another in 2022. This translates to a rate of 0.20 murders per 1,000 people in both years. The percentage of state murders attributed to the city jumped from 0% to 0.06% in these years, indicating a disproportionate increase relative to the state's overall murder rate. However, given the small population, even a single incident can cause significant statistical fluctuations.
Rape incidents have remained relatively stable, with most years reporting either 0 or 1 case. The rape rate per 1,000 people has fluctuated between 0 and 0.20, with 2022 showing a rate of 0.20. The city's contribution to the state's total rape cases has consistently been around 0.01% when incidents occurred, suggesting that the city's rape rate is proportional to its population within the state.
Robbery trends show more variation. The city experienced 0 to 4 robberies per year, with the highest number (4) occurring in 2020. This spike resulted in a rate of 0.77 robberies per 1,000 people and represented 0.02% of the state's total robberies that year. In most other years, the robbery rate remained below 0.40 per 1,000 people, indicating that 2020 was an anomaly rather than a trend.
Aggravated assault rates have fluctuated considerably, ranging from 0 to 8 incidents per year. The highest rate was in 2012, with 1.62 assaults per 1,000 people, representing 0.01% of the state's total. In recent years, the rate has generally decreased, with 2022 reporting no aggravated assaults. This trend suggests an overall improvement in this category of violent crime within the city.
There appears to be a moderate correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 3,030 people per square mile in 2010 to 3,129 in 2022, there was a general, though inconsistent, upward trend in total violent crimes. However, this correlation is not strong enough to imply causation, as other factors likely play significant roles.
The racial composition of the city has remained relatively stable, with the white population consistently representing the majority (70-82% from 2013 to 2022). There's a slight negative correlation between the percentage of white residents and violent crime rates, as years with higher white populations tend to have lower crime rates. However, this correlation is weak and should not be overemphasized.
Predicting future trends based on the available data is challenging due to the high variability in such a small population. However, if current trends continue, we might expect the violent crime rate to remain low, with occasional spikes due to isolated incidents. By 2029, the city might see an average of 3-5 violent crimes per year, maintaining its status as a relatively safe community.
In summary, Terrell Hills has maintained a generally low violent crime rate despite some year-to-year fluctuations. The city's small size means that individual incidents can have a significant impact on crime statistics. While there are some correlations between demographic factors and crime rates, these relationships are not strong enough to draw definitive conclusions. Overall, the city appears to be managing its growth while keeping violent crime rates relatively low.
