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Violent Crime Trends in Taylorville: A Decade of Progress and Persistent Challenges
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Taylorville, located in Illinois, has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade, alongside modest population growth. From 2011 to 2020, the total number of violent crimes decreased by 11.1%, from 27 to 24 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 3.2%, from 16,852 to 17,529 residents.
An analysis of murder trends reveals a relatively stable situation. From 2011 to 2020, there was only one reported murder, occurring in 2019. This single incident represented 0.14% of the state's murders that year. The murder rate per 1,000 people remained at 0 for most years, with a brief spike to 0.06 per 1,000 in 2019. This isolated event suggests that murder is not a persistent issue in the city, though its occurrence underscores the need for continued vigilance.
Rape incidents in the city have shown variability over time. The highest number of reported rapes was 5 in 2014, representing 0.16% of the state's total. The rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.30 that year. However, in recent years (2018-2020), there were no reported rapes, indicating a positive trend. This reduction could suggest improved safety measures or increased awareness in the community.
Robbery trends have remained relatively low but fluctuating. The highest number of robberies was 3 in 2020, representing 0.03% of the state's total. The robbery rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.18 in 2020. Despite the slight increase in recent years, the overall low numbers indicate that robbery is not a major concern for the city.
Aggravated assault has shown the most significant fluctuations among violent crimes. The number of incidents decreased from 28 in 2012 (0.12% of state total) to a low of 2 in 2017 (0.01% of state total), before rising again to 21 in 2020 (0.08% of state total). The rate per 1,000 people followed a similar pattern, peaking at 1.66 in 2012 and reaching a low of 0.12 in 2017, before increasing to 1.27 in 2020. This recent uptick in aggravated assaults warrants attention from local law enforcement and community leaders.
Examining correlations between violent crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The city's population density increased from 1,633 people per square mile in 2011 to 1,699 in 2022, coinciding with the overall decrease in violent crimes until 2017, followed by a slight increase. This suggests that population density alone may not be a strong predictor of violent crime rates in this case.
The racial composition of the city has remained relatively stable, with the white population decreasing slightly from 95% in 2014 to 92% in 2022. This minor shift in demographics does not appear to have a strong correlation with violent crime trends.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the recent upward trend in aggravated assaults if current conditions persist. However, given the city's history of fluctuations, this trend could be mitigated through targeted interventions and community policing efforts.
In summary, Taylorville has experienced a complex pattern of violent crime over the past decade. While murder and rape incidents have remained low or decreased, aggravated assaults have shown a concerning recent increase. The city's relatively stable demographic composition and moderate population growth provide a foundation for targeted crime prevention strategies. Moving forward, focusing on addressing the root causes of aggravated assaults and maintaining the low rates of other violent crimes will be crucial for ensuring the continued safety and well-being of Taylorville's residents.
