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Violent Crime Trends in Tarkio, Missouri: A Decade of Low Incidents
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Tarkio, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2019, the city experienced fluctuations in its total violent crime incidents, ranging from a high of 8 in 2010 to several years with no reported violent crimes. During this period, the population decreased from 1,721 in 2010 to 1,645 in 2019, representing a 4.4% decline.
The murder rate in this small city has remained consistently at zero throughout the reported period from 2010 to 2019. This statistic is particularly noteworthy given the population decline, as it indicates that the city has managed to maintain a murder-free environment despite demographic changes. The percentage of state murders attributable to Tarkio has consequently remained at 0% throughout this time frame.
Rape incidents in the city have been sporadic, with only one year, 2014, reporting any occurrences. In that year, there were 2 reported rapes, which translated to a rate of 1.31 per 1,000 residents. This single-year spike represented 0.11% of the state's total reported rapes for 2014. The absence of reported rapes in other years suggests that this was an anomaly rather than a trend, though it highlights the potential for such incidents even in small communities.
Robbery has been virtually non-existent in Tarkio from 2010 to 2019. The data shows no reported robberies during this period, with the exception of 2016, which recorded 0.0 robberies. This could indicate either a rounding error or an incident that did not meet the full criteria for classification as robbery. The city's contribution to the state's robbery statistics has consistently been 0%, reflecting its exceptionally low crime rate in this category.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city, though occurrences have been infrequent. The highest number of aggravated assaults was recorded in 2010 with 8 incidents, representing a rate of 4.65 per 1,000 residents and 0.06% of the state's total. Following this peak, the numbers decreased significantly, with most years reporting either 0 or 1 incident. By 2019, there were no reported aggravated assaults, indicating a positive trend in this crime category.
When examining correlations between violent crime and other factors, a weak relationship emerges between population density and crime rates. As the population density decreased from 1,241 per square mile in 2010 to 1,186 in 2019, there was a general downward trend in violent crime incidents. However, this correlation is not strong enough to suggest causation, given the small number of incidents overall.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests that Tarkio is likely to maintain its low violent crime rates. Based on the historical data, which shows a trend towards zero incidents in recent years, it's projected that the city will continue to experience very few, if any, violent crimes annually. The model predicts an average of less than one violent crime incident per year through 2029, with the possibility of several years with no reported violent crimes.
In summary, Tarkio has demonstrated a remarkably low and decreasing trend in violent crime over the past decade. The most significant finding is the consistent absence of murders and robberies, coupled with very low rates of rape and aggravated assault. These trends, when viewed in the context of the city's decreasing population, suggest that Tarkio has maintained and even improved its safety profile over time. The forecast for the next five years indicates that this small Missouri city is likely to continue its pattern of minimal violent crime, potentially serving as a model for similarly sized communities in maintaining public safety.
