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Violent Crime Trends in Tarboro: A Decade of Fluctuations in a Historic North Carolina Town
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Tarboro, a town in North Carolina, has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates alongside modest population changes over the past decade. From 2010 to 2017, the total number of violent crimes varied, with a high of 68 in 2011 and a low of 21 in 2014. During this period, the population decreased from 14,499 in 2010 to 13,425 in 2017, a decline of about 7.4%.
The murder rate in Tarboro has been relatively low, with most years reporting zero murders. However, there was a notable spike in 2015 when four murders were recorded, representing 1.34% of the state's total murders that year. This translates to a rate of approximately 0.28 murders per 1,000 residents, a significant increase from the typical rate of zero. Despite this outlier, the overall trend suggests that murder is not a persistent issue in the city.
Rape statistics for Tarboro are incomplete, with data available only for 2010-2012. During this period, reported rapes ranged from 2 to 4 cases per year, representing 0.17% to 0.34% of the state's total. The rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated between 0.14 and 0.28.
Robbery incidents in Tarboro have shown a general downward trend. In 2010, there were 14 robberies (0.19% of state total), which decreased to 11 in 2017 (0.17% of state total). The robbery rate per 1,000 residents declined from 0.97 in 2010 to 0.82 in 2017, indicating an improvement in this aspect of public safety relative to the population size.
Aggravated assault cases have fluctuated but show an overall decreasing trend. The highest number was recorded in 2011 with 54 cases (0.41% of state total), while the lowest was in 2014 with 14 cases (0.1% of state total). By 2017, there were 28 cases (0.19% of state total). The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 2.55 in 2010 to 2.09 in 2017, suggesting a relative improvement in violent interpersonal crimes.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 1,286 per square mile in 2010 to 1,190 in 2017, there was a general downward trend in violent crimes, particularly in robbery and aggravated assault rates. This suggests that the lower population density may have contributed to reduced opportunities for certain types of violent crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), based on the historical data and assuming current trends continue, we might expect murder rates to remain very low, likely averaging close to zero per year; robbery rates to continue their gradual decline, potentially reaching around 8-9 incidents per year; and aggravated assault cases to stabilize or slightly decrease, possibly averaging 25-30 cases annually.
In summary, Tarboro has shown improvements in several areas of violent crime over the past decade, particularly in robbery and aggravated assault rates. The town's decreasing population density appears to correlate with these positive trends. While the spike in murders in 2015 was concerning, it seems to be an anomaly rather than indicative of a broader trend. Moving forward, if current trends persist, the town may continue to see modest improvements in its violent crime statistics, contributing to an overall enhancement of public safety for its residents.
