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Violent Crime Trends in Tallmadge, Ohio: A Decade of Fluctuations and Overall Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Tallmadge, located in Ohio, presents an intriguing case study for violent crime trends. Over the past decade, the total number of violent crimes has fluctuated, with 38 incidents reported in 2010, decreasing to 21 in 2022, representing a 44.7% reduction. During this same period, the population grew from 18,773 in 2010 to 20,378 in 2022, an 8.5% increase.
The murder rate in the city has remained remarkably low, with only two incidents reported in 2013, accounting for 0.67% of the state's murders that year. In all other years, there were zero murders reported. This translates to a murder rate of 0.1 per 1,000 people in 2013, dropping to 0 in subsequent years. The extremely low murder rate suggests that the city has maintained effective measures to prevent homicides.
Rape incidents have shown some variability over the years. In 2012, there were 13 reported cases, representing 0.63% of the state's total. By 2022, this number decreased to 4 cases, or 0.1% of the state's total. The rape rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.68 in 2012 to 0.2 in 2022. This significant reduction indicates improved safety measures or reporting practices in the city.
Robbery trends have fluctuated but generally decreased over time. In 2010, there were 8 robberies (0.05% of state total), which decreased to 1 in 2022 (0.02% of state total). The robbery rate per 1,000 people dropped from 0.43 in 2010 to 0.05 in 2022, suggesting improved economic conditions or more effective law enforcement strategies.
Aggravated assault cases have shown more volatility. In 2010, there were 25 cases (0.21% of state total), which decreased to 16 cases in 2022 (0.09% of state total). The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 1.33 in 2010 to 0.79 in 2022. While there has been an overall decrease, the recent uptick from 5 cases in 2020 to 16 in 2022 warrants attention.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between the city's changing racial demographics and violent crime trends. As the white population percentage decreased from 92% in 2013 to 87% in 2022, and the Asian population increased from 1% to 6%, there was a general decrease in violent crimes. This suggests that increasing diversity may be associated with lower crime rates in the city.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can expect the overall violent crime rate to continue its downward trend, albeit with some fluctuations. Based on the current trends, we might anticipate the murder rate to remain at or near zero, rape incidents to stabilize around 3-5 cases per year, robberies to remain low, possibly between 1-3 cases annually, and aggravated assaults to potentially decrease slightly, averaging 10-12 cases per year.
In summary, Tallmadge has experienced a notable decrease in violent crimes over the past decade, despite population growth. The most significant improvements have been in reducing robberies and maintaining an extremely low murder rate. While aggravated assaults have shown recent increases, the overall trend remains positive. The city's changing demographics, particularly the increase in diversity, appear to correlate with these positive trends in violent crime reduction.
