Robbery trends in Swartz Creek demonstrated variability over the years. While there were no reported robberies in 2010 and 2016, the city experienced a peak of 2 robberies in both 2012 and 2013, with 1 incident in 2014. The robbery rate per 1,000 people reached its highest at 0.35 in 2012 and 2013. The city's contribution to state robbery figures was most significant in 2012 and 2015, at 0.02% and 0.03% respectively.

Aggravated assault cases in Swartz Creek showed a substantial increase. The number of reported cases rose from 5 in 2010 to 9 in 2016, marking an 80% increase. This trend is reflected in the rate per 1,000 people, which climbed from 0.87 in 2010 to 1.60 in 2016. The city's contribution to Michigan's aggravated assault cases doubled from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2016.

An interesting correlation emerges between the increase in violent crimes and the slight decrease in population density in Swartz Creek. As the population density decreased from 1,364 per square mile in 2010 to 1,341 in 2016, violent crimes increased. This counterintuitive relationship suggests that factors beyond population density are influencing crime rates in the city.

Based on the observed trends, predictive models suggest that by 2029, Swartz Creek may continue to see an increase in violent crimes, particularly in the categories of rape and aggravated assault. The total number of violent crimes could potentially reach 18-20 incidents annually, assuming current trends persist.

In conclusion, Swartz Creek has experienced a concerning increase in violent crimes, especially in rape and aggravated assault categories, despite a slight population decrease. The city's contribution to state crime figures, while still small, has grown in several categories. These trends underscore the need for targeted crime prevention strategies in Swartz Creek, with a particular focus on addressing the rising incidents of rape and aggravated assault.