Loading Content...
Violent Crime Trends in Susanville: Population Decline and Rising Assaults
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Susanville, a city in California, has experienced significant fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased by 1.22%, rising from 82 to 81 incidents. During this same period, the population decreased by 10.63%, from 18,168 to 16,237 residents.
The murder rate in the city has shown considerable volatility. In 2010, there was 1 murder, representing 0.07% of the state's total. This figure dropped to zero in 2011 and 2015-2017, but spiked to 2 murders in 2013 (0.14% of state total) and again in 2022 (0.12% of state total). The murder rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.055 in 2010 to 0.123 in 2022, a 123.6% increase. This trend suggests a concerning rise in the murder rate relative to the declining population.
Rape incidents have fluctuated over the years, with 6 cases (0.09% of state total) reported in 2010, peaking at 9 cases in 2016 and 2017 (0.08% and 0.07% of state total respectively), before dropping to 2 cases (0.02% of state total) in 2022. The rape rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.330 in 2010 to 0.123 in 2022, a 62.7% decrease. This trend indicates an improvement in this aspect of public safety relative to the population.
Robbery incidents have remained relatively stable, with 11 cases (0.02% of state total) in 2010 and 10 cases (0.02% of state total) in 2022. However, due to the population decrease, the robbery rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.605 in 2010 to 0.616 in 2022, a 1.8% increase. This suggests a slight worsening of robbery rates relative to the population.
Aggravated assault has shown the most dramatic increase among violent crimes. In 2010, there were 64 cases (0.08% of state total), which rose to a peak of 189 cases (0.23% of state total) in 2017, before declining to 67 cases (0.07% of state total) in 2022. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people increased from 3.522 in 2010 to 4.126 in 2022, a 17.1% increase. This trend indicates a significant worsening of aggravated assault rates relative to the population.
There appears to be a strong correlation between the increase in violent crime rates and the decrease in population density. As the population density dropped from 2,294 per square mile in 2010 to 2,050 per square mile in 2022, violent crime rates per capita increased. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between changes in racial demographics and crime rates. As the white population percentage decreased from 59% in 2013 to 50% in 2022, and the Hispanic population increased from 23% to 28% during the same period, violent crime rates showed an overall increase.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, it is estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), Susanville may see a 15% increase in overall violent crime rates if current trends continue. This projection suggests that aggravated assault will remain the most prevalent violent crime, potentially reaching 77 cases per year.
In conclusion, Susanville has faced challenges with violent crime, particularly aggravated assault, despite its decreasing population. The city's changing demographics and declining population density appear to be correlated with these crime trends. As the community looks to the future, addressing these issues will be crucial for improving public safety and quality of life for its residents.
