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Violent Crime Trends in Superior, Arizona: Small Town Faces Challenges Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Superior, Arizona, is a small community that has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime rates over recent years. From 2017 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased from 7 to 12, representing a 71.43% increase. During this same period, the population decreased from 3,217 to 2,907, a 9.64% reduction, suggesting a disproportionate rise in violent crime relative to population changes.
The murder rate in Superior has remained consistently at zero from 2017 to 2022, with no reported cases throughout this period. This stability in the absence of murders is noteworthy, especially considering the population decline. The percentage of state crime for murder has consequently remained at 0% throughout these years, indicating that the city has not contributed to Arizona's murder statistics.
Rape incidents in the city have shown some variation. There were no reported cases in 2017 and 2018, but one case was reported in both 2020 and 2021, representing 0.04% and 0.1% of the state's total rape cases, respectively. In 2022, rape cases dropped back to zero. The rate per 1,000 people peaked in 2021 at 0.34, decreasing to 0 in 2022. This fluctuation suggests a need for continued vigilance in sexual assault prevention efforts.
Robbery trends have remained relatively stable, with no reported cases in 2017 and 2018, and one case per year from 2020 to 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 people increased slightly from 0 to 0.34 between 2017 and 2022 due to population decrease. The city's contribution to state robbery statistics rose from 0% to 0.02% in this period, indicating a minimal impact on overall state robbery figures.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in Superior. Cases increased from 7 in 2017 to 11 in 2022, with a peak of 14 in 2021. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 2.18 in 2017 to 3.78 in 2022, reflecting a significant increase relative to the population. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault figures grew from 0.04% to 0.07% during this period, suggesting a growing concern for local law enforcement.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between the rising violent crime rates and the decreasing population density, which fell from 283 per square mile in 2017 to 255 in 2022. Additionally, the Hispanic population percentage decreased from 65% to 57% between 2017 and 2022, while the white population increased from 33% to 38%. These demographic shifts coincide with the increase in violent crimes, though a direct causal relationship cannot be established without further analysis.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we might expect the total number of violent crimes to continue its upward trajectory, potentially reaching around 18-20 incidents annually. This projection is based on the observed increase from 7 to 12 cases between 2017 and 2022, assuming a similar rate of change.
In summary, Superior has experienced a concerning rise in violent crime rates, particularly in aggravated assaults, despite a declining population. The stability in murder rates and the fluctuations in rape and robbery cases present a complex picture of public safety in the community. The correlation between demographic changes and crime rates suggests that socio-economic factors may be influencing these trends. As the city moves forward, addressing the root causes of violent crime, particularly aggravated assaults, should be a priority for local authorities to ensure the safety and well-being of Superior's residents.
