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Violent Crime Trends in Sunbury, PA: A Decade of Fluctuations and Recent Murder Spike
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Sunbury, located in Pennsylvania, has experienced significant fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes decreased by 78.38%, from 74 to 16 incidents. This substantial reduction occurred against a backdrop of population decline, with the city's population decreasing by 3.62% from 10,043 in 2010 to 9,680 in 2022.
The murder rate in the city has shown notable volatility. In 2010, there was one murder, representing 0.2% of the state's total. The city then experienced no murders from 2011 to 2019. However, in 2022, there was a dramatic spike with 5 murders, accounting for 0.91% of the state's total. This increase is particularly striking when considering the population decline. The murder rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.10 in 2010 to 0.52 in 2022, a 420% increase. This sudden surge in murders is a significant concern for the community and law enforcement.
Rape incidents have fluctuated over the years. In 2010, there were 4 reported rapes (0.24% of state total), increasing to 11 in 2016 (0.57% of state total), before decreasing to 5 in 2022 (0.5% of state total). The rape rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.40 in 2010 to 0.52 in 2022, a 30% rise. This trend suggests that while the absolute number of rapes has remained relatively stable, the rate has increased due to the declining population.
Robbery trends show a general decline. In 2010, there were 6 robberies (0.05% of state total), which decreased to 1 in 2022 (0.02% of state total). The robbery rate per 1,000 people fell from 0.60 in 2010 to 0.10 in 2022, an 83.33% decrease. This reduction in robberies is a positive development for the city's safety.
Aggravated assault incidents have shown significant fluctuations. In 2010, there were 63 cases (0.43% of state total), peaking at 95 in 2011 (0.7% of state total), before dramatically decreasing to 5 in 2022 (0.05% of state total). The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people decreased from 6.27 in 2010 to 0.52 in 2022, a 91.71% reduction. This substantial decrease in aggravated assaults is a notable improvement in the city's violent crime landscape.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between the city's declining population density and the overall reduction in violent crimes. The population density decreased from 5,004 people per square mile in 2010 to 4,824 in 2022, coinciding with the general downward trend in violent crimes. Additionally, the racial composition of the city has remained relatively stable, with the white population decreasing slightly from 91% in 2013 to 85% in 2022, while the Hispanic population increased from 5% to 9% during the same period. This demographic shift does not appear to have a strong correlation with violent crime trends.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate the following: Murder rates may continue to fluctuate but are likely to remain higher than the pre-2022 levels, potentially stabilizing around 2-3 incidents per year. Rape incidents are expected to remain relatively stable, possibly fluctuating between 4-6 cases annually. Robbery rates are likely to remain low, potentially ranging from 1-3 incidents per year. Aggravated assaults may see a slight increase from the 2022 low but are unlikely to reach the high levels seen in earlier years, possibly averaging 10-15 cases annually.
In summary, Sunbury has experienced a complex evolution in its violent crime landscape. While overall violent crime has decreased significantly, the recent spike in murders presents a new challenge. The city has made substantial progress in reducing aggravated assaults and robberies, but the persistence of rape cases remains a concern. These trends, coupled with the changing demographics and declining population, suggest a need for targeted public safety strategies to address specific areas of concern while maintaining the overall downward trend in violent crime.
