Robbery trends in Summersville were minimal, with only one reported incident in 2015. This single occurrence resulted in a robbery rate of 0.53 per 1,000 people for that year, based on the population of 1,879. The city's contribution to the state's robbery statistics peaked at 0.02% in 2015, returning to 0% in all other years. This isolated incident suggests that robbery is not a persistent issue in the community.

Aggravated assault emerged as the most prevalent form of violent crime in Summersville. The number of aggravated assaults fluctuated over the years, with notable peaks of 4 incidents in 2017 and 6 in 2019. The rate per 1,000 people varied accordingly, reaching its highest at 4.83 per 1,000 in 2019. The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault statistics ranged from 0% to 0.04%, with the highest percentage occurring in 2019. These fluctuations suggest a need for targeted interventions to address aggravated assault in the community.

When examining correlations between violent crime trends and demographic factors, a notable relationship emerges with population density. As the population density decreased from 1,486 per square mile in 2010 to 1,036 per square mile in 2020, there was a general increase in violent crime incidents, particularly aggravated assaults. This inverse relationship suggests that factors beyond population density may be influencing crime rates in the city.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), based on historical data and current trends, we might expect: Murder and rape rates to remain at or near zero, given the consistent absence of these crimes over the past decade. Robbery incidents to remain rare, with possibly one or two isolated incidents over the five-year period. Aggravated assaults to potentially continue their fluctuating pattern, with an average of 2-3 incidents per year, assuming no significant changes in local conditions or interventions.

In summary, Summersville's violent crime landscape is primarily characterized by sporadic incidents of aggravated assault, with other forms of violent crime being rare or non-existent. The inverse relationship between population density and violent crime incidents, particularly aggravated assaults, warrants further investigation into the underlying socioeconomic factors that may be influencing this trend. Moving forward, focused efforts on preventing and addressing aggravated assaults could significantly impact the overall violent crime rate in Summersville.