Robbery has been a rare occurrence in the city, with only one reported case in 2013, accounting for 0.03% of the state's robberies that year. The absence of robberies in most years, despite population growth, suggests that this type of crime is not a significant concern for the community.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the area. The number of cases peaked in 2018 with 22 incidents, representing 0.19% of the state's total. However, by 2022, this number decreased to 5 cases, or 0.04% of the state's total. When adjusted for population growth, the rate of aggravated assaults per 1,000 people has shown an overall declining trend. In 2018, the rate was approximately 4.27 per 1,000 residents, while in 2022, it decreased to about 0.79 per 1,000.

Examining correlations between violent crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The increase in population density from 414 people per square mile in 2010 to 627 in 2022 does not appear to have a strong positive correlation with violent crime rates, as crime has generally decreased despite the population increase. There seems to be a weak inverse correlation between the percentage of white residents and violent crime rates. As the white population percentage decreased from 91% in 2013 to 66% in 2022, there was a slight uptick in violent crimes, particularly noticeable in 2018. However, this correlation is not consistent throughout the entire period.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall violent crime rates if current trends continue. The city's growing population and changing demographics may continue to influence crime patterns, but the general trend appears to be moving towards lower crime rates per capita.

In summary, Summerdale has shown resilience in managing violent crime despite significant population growth. The most notable improvements have been in the reduction of aggravated assaults, which constitute the majority of violent crimes in the area. While there have been fluctuations in various crime categories, the overall trend points towards a safer community when considering crime rates relative to population size. The city's ability to maintain low levels of murder and robbery while addressing other forms of violent crime suggests effective law enforcement strategies and community engagement.