Robbery trends remained relatively low throughout the period. The city reported one robbery each in 2012, 2013, 2015, and 2016, representing between 0.02% to 0% of the state's robberies. From 2017 to 2022, no robberies were reported, indicating a positive trend in this category of crime. The robbery rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.20 in 2012 to 0 in 2022, suggesting improved safety in terms of property crimes against persons.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents fluctuated significantly, peaking at 15 in 2013, 2014, and 2015, before decreasing to 8 in 2022. This represents a reduction from 0.11% of the state's aggravated assaults in 2013-2014 to 0.05% in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 3.05 in 2013 to 1.51 in 2022, indicating an overall improvement despite population growth.

Analyzing correlations, there appears to be a relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,259 per square mile in 2012 to 1,355 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate showed a general downward trend, suggesting that the city has managed to improve safety despite increasing density.

The racial composition of the city has shown some shifts, with the white population decreasing from 92% in 2013 to 87% in 2022, while other racial groups, particularly those identifying as two or more races, increased from 0% to 5% during the same period. This diversification coincided with the overall decrease in violent crime, suggesting that the city has maintained relative safety while becoming more diverse.

Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), the city may see a slight increase in overall violent crime incidents, potentially reaching 14-15 annual incidents. This projection assumes a continuation of current population growth trends and takes into account the recent uptick in rape cases.

In summary, Ste. Genevieve has shown resilience in managing violent crime over the past decade. Despite population growth and increased density, the city has maintained relatively low crime rates in most categories. The complete elimination of murders since 2013 is particularly noteworthy. However, the recent spike in rape cases and the persistent, though reduced, occurrence of aggravated assaults indicate areas requiring ongoing attention from law enforcement and community initiatives. As the city continues to grow and diversify, maintaining these positive trends while addressing emerging challenges will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of its residents.