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Violent Crime Trends in Staunton, Illinois: A Study of Fluctuations Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Staunton, Illinois, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. With a population of 5,833 in 2022, this small city has experienced fluctuations in its violent crime rates over the years. Between 2010 and 2016, the total number of violent crimes increased from 9 to 11, representing a 22.22% increase. During this same period, the population decreased slightly from 5,959 to 5,834, a 2.10% decline.
The city has fortunately not recorded any murders in the years for which data is available (2010-2016). This absence of homicides is notable, especially considering the small population size. The murder rate per 1,000 people has consistently remained at zero, and the city has not contributed to the state's murder statistics during this period.
Rape incidents have fluctuated over the years. In 2010, there was 1 reported case, which increased to 2 cases in 2015, but then decreased back to 1 in 2016. The rape rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.17 in 2010 to 0.33 in 2015, before falling to 0.17 in 2016. The city's contribution to the state's rape statistics has varied, from 0.06% in 2010 and 2015 to 0.03% in 2016. This suggests that while rape remains a concern, its incidence relative to the state average has been inconsistent.
Robbery trends show some variability. There were 2 robberies in 2010, none reported in 2013 and 2015, and 1 in 2014 and 2016. The robbery rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.34 in 2010 to 0.17 in 2016. The city's share of state robberies remained low, at 0.01% in 2010, 2014, and 2016, indicating that robbery is not a major issue compared to state levels.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in the city. The number of cases increased from 6 in 2010 to 11 in 2015, before decreasing to 9 in 2016. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 1.01 in 2010 to 1.84 in 2015, then fell slightly to 1.54 in 2016. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics increased from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2015, settling at 0.03% in 2016. This suggests that aggravated assault has become a more significant issue relative to other violent crimes in the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a loose relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density fluctuated between 1,465 and 1,509 people per square mile from 2010 to 2022, violent crime rates showed some corresponding changes. However, the correlation is not strong enough to definitively link population density to crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's estimated that by 2029, Staunton may see a slight increase in overall violent crime rates if current trends continue. The most significant increase is likely to be in aggravated assaults, potentially reaching 12-13 cases annually. Rape incidents may stabilize at 1-2 cases per year, while robbery rates are expected to remain low, possibly fluctuating between 0-2 cases annually.
In conclusion, Staunton has experienced modest fluctuations in violent crime rates, with aggravated assault emerging as the primary concern. The absence of murders and low robbery rates are positive indicators for public safety. However, the city should remain vigilant, particularly in addressing aggravated assaults, which have shown the most significant upward trend. As the community moves forward, focusing on prevention strategies for assault and maintaining the low rates in other violent crime categories will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of its residents.
