Rape incidents in St. Joseph have been extremely rare. Only one case was reported in 2012, accounting for 0.07% of the state's total that year. This translates to a rate of approximately 0.5 incidents per 1,000 people for 2012. In all other years, there were no reported rape cases. This isolated incident does not establish a trend but rather highlights the infrequency of such crimes in the community.

Robbery statistics for the city show no reported incidents from 2010 to 2020. This consistent absence of robberies suggests a very low risk for this type of crime in the community. The robbery rate per 1,000 people has remained at 0 throughout the period, with no contribution to the state's robbery statistics.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city, though still occurring infrequently. There were 8 cases in 2011 (3.8 per 1,000 people), 6 in 2012 (3 per 1,000 people), 2 in 2016 (1 per 1,000 people), and 1 each in 2019 and 2020 (about 0.5 per 1,000 people). These incidents represented between 0.01% and 0.04% of the state's total aggravated assaults in the respective years. The trend shows a general decrease in both the number and rate of aggravated assaults over time.

When examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors, the most notable relationship is with population density. As the population density decreased from 551 per square mile in 2010 to 480 per square mile in 2020, there was a general downward trend in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults. However, the correlation is not perfect due to the sporadic nature of the crime incidents.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) is challenging due to the inconsistent and low number of incidents. However, based on the overall decreasing trend in population and the infrequent nature of violent crimes in recent years, it's reasonable to project that the city will likely continue to experience very low levels of violent crime, with possibly 0-2 incidents per year, primarily in the category of aggravated assault.

In conclusion, St. Joseph has maintained a remarkably low violent crime rate over the past decade. The absence of murders and robberies, coupled with only isolated incidents of rape and infrequent aggravated assaults, paints a picture of a generally safe community. The declining population and density appear to correlate with reduced violent crime occurrences, suggesting that the city may continue to be a relatively safe place to live in the coming years, barring any significant changes in local conditions or broader societal factors.