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Violent Crime Trends in St. Ignatius, Montana: A Small Town's Surprising Growth and Safety Record
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
St. Ignatius, Montana, a small community with a rich history, has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime rates over the years, alongside significant population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes varied considerably, with a peak of 10 incidents in 2021 and a low of 0 in 2014 and 2018. During this same period, the population grew from 1,060 in 2010 to 1,496 in 2022, representing a 41.1% increase.
Regarding murder trends, St. Ignatius has maintained a consistently low rate, with no reported cases of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022. This statistic remains unchanged despite the population growth, resulting in a consistent murder rate of 0 per 1,000 residents. The percentage of state crime for murder has also remained at 0% throughout this period, indicating that the city has not contributed to the state's murder statistics.
Rape incidents in the city have been infrequent but present. There were reported cases in 2011 (1 case, 0.6% of state total), 2017 (1 case, 0.28% of state total), and 2021 (1 case, 0.25% of state total). The rape rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated slightly, from 0.89 in 2011 to 0.78 in 2017, and 0.69 in 2021, showing a decreasing trend when accounting for population growth. This suggests that while isolated incidents occur, they are not increasing proportionally with the population.
The robbery rate in St. Ignatius has remained consistently at zero from 2010 to 2022. There were no reported robbery cases throughout this period, resulting in a 0% contribution to the state's robbery statistics. This consistent absence of robberies, even as the population grew, indicates a very low risk for this type of crime in the community.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of cases has fluctuated over the years, with notable peaks of 4 cases in 2010 (0.48% of state total), 3 cases in 2016 (0.21% of state total), and 9 cases in 2021 (0.37% of state total). The rate per 1,000 residents varied accordingly, from 3.77 in 2010 to 2.31 in 2016, and 6.24 in 2021. Despite these fluctuations, there's no clear long-term trend, as evidenced by the drop to just 1 case (0.04% of state total) in 2022, resulting in a rate of 0.67 per 1,000 residents.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,988 per square mile in 2010 to 2,806 in 2022, there were corresponding fluctuations in violent crime, particularly aggravated assaults. However, this correlation is not consistently strong across all years.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential slight increase in overall violent crime rates, primarily driven by aggravated assaults. The model suggests that the number of aggravated assaults could rise to an average of 4-5 cases per year, assuming the population continues to grow at a similar rate. However, murder, rape, and robbery rates are expected to remain very low or at zero.
In summary, St. Ignatius has maintained relatively low violent crime rates despite significant population growth. The absence of murders and robberies, coupled with infrequent rape cases, paints a picture of a generally safe community. Aggravated assault remains the primary concern, with fluctuating rates that warrant ongoing attention from local law enforcement. As the town continues to grow, maintaining these low crime rates will be crucial for the community's safety and quality of life.
